Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits will persist in Mexico

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits will persist in Mexico

25 January 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending September 2021 indicates deficits of varying severity throughout northern and central Mexico. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Baja Peninsula and pockets across the north.

In central Mexico, deficits of varying intensity will reach from Nayarit on the Pacific through northern Veracruz State. In the south, surpluses are forecast in Tabasco, northern Chiapas, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo. Surpluses will be exceptional in Chiapas.

Surpluses are also forecast throughout much of Central America and will be extreme in northern Honduras and around Lake Nicaragua.

In the Caribbean, intense surpluses are forecast in Jamaica, pockets of Cuba, Port-au-Prince (Haiti), and the Bahamas. Deficits are expected in Turks and Caicos Islands.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2021 indicates that water deficits of varying intensity will persist in the bulk of Mexico though the extent of exceptional deficits will shrink. Deficits will be mild to moderate in many regions, but several large areas will experience more intense anomalies: deficits will be exceptional in pockets of central and southern Baja, and in much of Jalisco and Colima on the west coast; moderate to exceptional in Chihuahua, Durango, and Coahuila in the north; and extreme to exceptional in Veracruz and its inland neighbors. Surpluses in the Yucatán Peninsula and nearby southern states will shrink and downgrade somewhat.

Widespread surpluses will persist throughout Central America and will include extreme to exceptional anomalies. Intense surpluses will also persist in Jamaica, pockets of Cuba, Port-au-Prince, and the Bahamas.

From April through June 2021, deficits and surpluses in Mexico will shrink considerably, leaving many regions with normal conditions. Deficits will persist across the northern states and while moderating in Baja will intensify in Chihuahua, becoming exceptional in the north. Surpluses in Central America will shrink and downgrade, persisting primarily in Honduras, Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica. In the Caribbean, exceptional surpluses will persist in Jamaica, and surpluses of varying intensity in pockets of Cuba and in the Bahamas.

The forecast for the final three months – July through September 2021 – indicates nearly normal conditions for much of Mexico with some mild to moderate deficits in northern Baja, southern Chihuahua, and the Yucatán. Surpluses are forecast in northern Sonora in the Rio Batepito region and in southern Durango. Surpluses will recede in Central America as moderate deficits emerge, and intense surpluses will persist in Jamaica and other pockets in the Caribbean. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Mexico’s corn production for the 2020-2021 marketing year is expected to drop due to drought impact on water availability says the USDA in its recent GAIN (Global Agricultural Information Network) report. In mid-December, water available for irrigation was estimated at 271 percent below the 2019 level. The country’s citrus production could fall by as much as 50 percent.

Low rainfall has exacerbated water problems in Mexico City and its metropolitan reaches, home to 20 million people. The capital relies on reservoirs in the Cutzamala system for 25 percent of its water, but with that system running low authorities reduced the flow in the second half of 2020 by 10 percent, affecting 300,000 people. The COVID pandemic increased water use while drought depleted the supply. Until mid-January, water cuts will occur three days a week for 44 hours, forcing residents to fill cisterns and buckets quickly or purchase from water trucks.

More than two months after Hurricanes Eta and Iota struck Central America, 14,300 Hondurans are still in shelters and hundreds of homeless live on the streets.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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