Africa: Water surplus to persist in Sahel & E Africa

26 January 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September 2021 indicates intense water deficits across North Africa including widespread exceptional anomalies. Pockets of mixed conditions are also forecast (pink/purple).

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected across the Sahel, dipping into northern Nigeria, and in Eritrea and northeastern and central Ethiopia. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in central Mali, central Chad, southern Sudan, and northeastern Ethiopia. In Africa’s Horn, surpluses will be exceptional in the Nugaal region of northern Somalia, but intense deficits are forecast in a pocket of Somaliland.

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Intense deficits are also forecast in Sierra Leone and from southern Cameroon through Equatorial Guinea into western Gabon. Areas of moderate to extreme deficit include southeastern Nigeria, the northern portion of the Congo River Basin, northern Angola, northeastern Mozambique, Swaziland and nearby in South Africa’s Upper Vaal River region. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for central and southwestern Madagascar.

In East Africa, moderate to extreme surpluses will dominate Tanzania, and surpluses are also forecast for western Kenya and along the Victoria Nile through Uganda. Some pockets of moderate surplus are expected in Malawi; western Mozambique; western Zambia; southeastern Angola; eastern Namibia, the Auob River, and the central coast; and northern Botswana and the Molopo River in the south. Other areas of surplus include the region east of Kinshasa in Democratic Republic of the Congo and a few isolated pockets in South Africa.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March 2021 indicates that deficits in Africa will shrink and downgrade. Deficits in North Africa will be mild to moderate overall, and surpluses will emerge along the Nile River in southern Egypt. Moderate deficits will increase in the west as the Sahel transitions, but intense surpluses will persist in the eastern Sahel. Surpluses will also persist in western Central African Republic, the Nile through South Sudan, pockets of southern Ethiopia, and the Nugaal Region of Somalia.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202010-202109_3mo_twitter.png

Around the Gulf of Guinea, surpluses will persist in western Ghana and smaller pockets in northern Gulf nations; deficits will persist in southeastern Nigeria, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon, downgrading somewhat. In Democratic Republic of the Congo, deficits will moderate and surpluses will persist east of Kinshasa. Surpluses will persist in western Kenya, Burundi, and throughout Tanzania, and will emerge in Malawi and northern Mozambique. Surpluses will also emerge in southeastern Angola, and eastern Namibia, and will increase in Zambia and Botswana. Deficits are forecast for northern Angola, Swaziland and nearby in South Africa, and in central and southern Madagascar.

From April through June 2021, large pockets of exceptional deficit will emerge across North Africa, and surpluses will re-emerge in the western Sahel and shrink somewhat in the east. Conditions around the Gulf of Guinea will generally normalize. Surpluses will continue in Nugaal, Somalia but will shrink in East Africa, persisting in central Tanzania. Moderate surpluses will persist in Namibia and Botswana.

The forecast for the final quarter – July through September 2021 – indicates that deficits will remain widespread across northern Africa but will shrink in the southern Sahara. Surpluses will shrink considerably in the Sahel; persist in Tanzania and eastern Namibia; and emerge in Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought in southern Madagascar has pushed 1.3 million people into a state of food-insecurity according to the UN’s World Food Programme. The WFP’s regional director issued an appeal for $35 million to prevent a humanitarian crisis, emphasizing that people are eating “Cactus mixed with mud, roots, whatever they can find …”.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise roared out of the South-West Indian Ocean in mid-January, displacing 7,000 people in Mozambique. Thousands of buildings were damaged and heavy rains and wind destroyed crops and disrupted power supplies. The storm continued on a path into South Africa where flooding blocked many roads in Limpopo, closed parts of Kruger National Park, left the Tsendze Bridge under water, and flooded Pioneer Dam.

A survey of seven Nigerian states estimates that nearly 80 percent of Nigerian farmers were affected by drought or flood in 2020 including 26 percent that were “greatly affected.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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