Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook February 2021

3 February 2021

OVERVIEW
The February 2021 forecast indicates exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures in a broad column down central Brazil, and a vast extent in China from the Shandong Peninsula to Macau. Parts of central Brazil will also be drier than normal.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
In South America, the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins, and Maranhão can expect dry anomalies reaching extreme to exceptional intensity with moderately drier conditions in the surrounding areas. Some precipitation surpluses are forecast in the northern Amazon Basin and will be severe to extreme in northwestern Pará State. Pockets of primarily moderate surplus are expected in eastern and southern Venezuela reaching into Colombia; from Cali to Bogota in Colombia; eastern Ecuador; the border region shared by Peru and Brazil; and in Brazil’s southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, primarily along the coast.

Somewhat drier than normal conditions are forecast through the Cordillera Occidental Range in southwestern Peru. Dry anomalies will be severe in Argentina’s northwestern provinces, while Neuquén and Mendoza Provinces along the country’s central Chilean border will be wetter than normal. Moderate to severe dry anomalies are forecast for southern Chile.

Relatively normal precipitation is expected in Central America and the Caribbean with some pockets of surplus from southern Guatemala into El Salvador and in north-central Honduras. Moderately drier than normal conditions are forecast in central Cuba and the northern Bahamas. Some moderate deficits are forecast near Mexico’s west-central coast.

Florida will be moderately drier than normal in the south from Orlando past Miami and in a small pocket surrounding Jacksonville in the north. Elsewhere in the United States, moderately wetter than normal conditions are expected in southern Arkansas; surrounding Fargo in eastern North Dakota and into Minnesota; a few scattered pockets in Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado; and northwestern Alaska, including the Seward Peninsula, and in much of the Kuskokwim River Watershed in the southwest.

Moderate to severe precipitation surpluses are forecast in northwestern Quebec, Canada from Hudson Bay in the west to Ungava Bay in the east. Moderate surpluses are expected in the Fraser River Watershed in Labrador; in Manitoba between Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg; and in Northwest Territories around Fort Good Hope in the Mackenzie River Watershed.

Europe can expect moderate surpluses in several regions including pockets along the UK’s North Sea Coast; the Mosul River Watershed of northeastern France; a belt across central Germany in the region of the Main River, a tributary of the Rhine; the Czech Republic; eastern Belarus into Russia; central Ukraine; and Macedonia. Moderate precipitation deficits are forecast throughout much of Finland and in pockets of northern Sweden and Norway.

Some pockets of moderate wet surpluses are forecast in nations along the northern Gulf of Guinea in Africa, particularly in Nigeria. Moderate surpluses are also expected in Zambia and throughout much of Botswana where anomalies will be severe in the center of the nation. Regions forecast to be drier than normal include eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and pockets in western Ethiopia; scattered pockets in North Africa; Lesotho; and, southwestern Angola and western Namibia. Deficits could be severe around Namibe (Mocamedes) in coastal Angola.

Relatively normal conditions are forecast in much of the Middle East. Moderate precipitation surpluses are expected along the northeastern bank of the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia. Some pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in southern Saudi Arabia and from northeastern Turkey into Georgia, Iran’s northwestern tip, and parts of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In Central Asia, moderate to severe precipitation deficits are forecast in western Uzbekistan; and, moderate deficits across the border into southwestern Kazakhstan, and in western Tajikistan and south-central Kyrgyzstan. A forecast of moderate surplus is indicated in eastern Kazakhstan, leading into a wide belt of more intense surplus in Russia from the Upper Yenisei River region past Lake Baikal. Surpluses, primarily moderate, are forecast in Primorsky along the Sea of Japan in Russia’s Far East, along the East Siberian Sea in the northeast, and Chukotka on the Bering Strait.

Across South Asia, moderate surpluses are forecast in central India, northern Sri Lanka, and between the Chenab and Ravi Rivers in northern Pakistan. Deficits are expected along Afghanistan’s northern border; in the Hindu Kush Mountains of northern Pakistan; and India’s Far Northeast where anomalies will be extreme in Arunachal Pradesh.

In East Asia, deficits are forecast in eastern and far western Tibet; western Yunnan and southern Sichuan; and western Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, and western Inner Mongolia. Deficits will be intense in eastern Tibet. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Taiwan. Surpluses are forecast in Northeast China and will be severe in Jilin. Surpluses are also forecast in pockets of southern China particularly in Guizhou, and along parts of the Yarlung River (Brahmaputra) in southern Tibet. Mongolia can expect surpluses in the north and east, and some pockets of surplus are expected in northern North Korea. Honshu’s central west coast can expect surplus as can Hokkaido, but some areas of moderate deficit are forecast in southern Honshu.

Much of Southeast Asia and the Pacific are expected to see normal precipitation. However, deficits are forecast in northern Myanmar and southern Sulawesi, Indonesia, and surpluses along New Guinea’s north coast.

Moderate deficits are expected in northern Queensland, Australia between Townsville and Rockhampton, and moderate surpluses surrounding Wangaratta in north-central Victoria and in northeastern Tasmania. Deficits are forecast in New Zealand.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures are forecast in a broad column down the center of Brazil from Amapá in the north through the state of São Paulo in the south, and from Piauí in the east through Mato Grosso in the west. Anomalies of lesser intensity will exist well beyond this extent. Exceptionally hotter temperatures are also expected in Brazil’s eastern tip in Rio Grande do Norte. Southern Brazil can expect moderately cooler than normal temperatures in Rio Grande do Sul.

Elsewhere in South America, the following regions are forecast to be moderately warmer than normal overall: French Guiana, south-central Colombia into northwestern Peru, central Ecuador, much of central Peru, southwestern Bolivia into northwestern Argentina, southern Chile and Argentina near the Gulf of Corcovado, and southern Patagonia. Temperature anomalies could be severe across the western border of Bolivia and Argentina and a pocket in Patagonia. Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast for much of northern Argentina and eastern Paraguay, and anomalies will be severe to exceptional in the Gran Chaco region. Central Venezuela will be somewhat cooler with anomalies leading across the border into Colombia.

In Central America, Guatemala will be moderately warmer than normal with severe anomalies west of Guatemala City. In the Caribbean, severe warm anomalies are forecast for Jamaica and moderate warm anomalies in eastern Cuba, Dominican Republic, and the Bahamas.

Southern Mexico will be moderately warmer than normal from the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A vast area in northern and central Mexico will be warmer than the norm, with moderate anomalies overall and severe anomalies in Coahuila and Durango, and in Aguascalientes and nearby regions of surrounding states.

Temperatures in the United States are expected to be normal though moderate warm anomalies are forecast for Maine and a few pockets west of Denver, Colorado. Moderately warmer temperatures are also forecast in western Alaska with some severe anomalies on the northwestern coast from Point Hope to Barrow.

Eastern Canada will be warmer than normal. Anomalies will be severe in a vast portion of Quebec, and extreme near the Manicouagan Reservoir. Severe pockets are forecast in Quebec’s Gaspé Peninsula and in Nova Scotia. Eastern Baffin Island is expected to be moderately warmer than normal with severe anomalies on the Cumberland Peninsula in the east.

In Europe, Sweden will be somewhat cooler than normal as will pockets of Norway. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast for eastern Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, the Balkans, and southern Italy. The Piedmont region of northern Italy will be moderately warmer than normal as will Switzerland, southwestern France into Spain, much of the western Iberian Peninsula, and much of Spain’s Mediterranean Coast.

Warm anomalies ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast across northern Africa with the bulk of the exceptional anomalies in Egypt. Intense anomalies are also are expected along Africa’s Red Sea Coast. In the Horn of Africa, normal temperatures are forecast for central Ethiopia but will be surrounded by anomalous warm conditions. On the opposite side of the continent, pockets of severe warm anomalies are expected in nations along the Gulf of Guinea though normal temperatures will prevail in coastal regions. Warm anomalies could reach exceptional intensity in central Cameroon. Other regions with a forecast of warmer than normal temperatures, primarily moderate anomalies, include Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola, Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Kenya, west-central and southeastern Tanzania, northern Zambia and northern Mozambique. Madagascar can expect warm anomalies reaching extreme intensity. Botswana will be cooler than normal, much cooler in the central west. Eastern Namibia will be somewhat cooler than normal as will Mozambique’s western spur.

Much of the Middle East will be warmer than normal with intensely warmer conditions forecast for Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the bulk of western Iran, the Levant, Iraq west of the Euphrates, northern Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Yemen west of Sanaa.

The outlook for Central Asia includes warmer than normal temperatures. Anomalies will be exceptional in Kyrgyzstan, severe to extreme in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, severe in Uzbekistan, and of varying intensity in Kazakhstan, more intense in the west. Southern Russia, between the Sea of Azov and the Caspian, will be much warmer. And, much of Russia’s vast Far East will be warmer than normal with extreme to exceptional anomalies along the East Siberian Sea and in the Alden River region, a tributary of the Lena River in east Siberia.

Though normal temperatures are forecast for much of India, South Asia will have some hot spots. Warm anomalies are expected in northern Afghanistan and northern Pakistan; India’s far north, northwest, and western coast; pockets in the southern tip of India and in Sri Lanka; and India’s Far Northeast. Anomalies will be intense in pockets of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and India’s far north region and Far Northeast. A cooler than normal pocket is expected in eastern Uttar Pradesh.

East Asia can expect warmer than normal temperatures in many areas but a vast region in eastern China stands out with exceptionally hotter conditions from the Shandong Peninsula to Macau, with extreme to exceptional anomalies reaching well into central China and north nearly to Mongolia. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for China’s vast northwest, moderate anomalies in the northeast, and nearly normal conditions in Tibet. Warm anomalies will blanket much of Mongolia and will be severe to extreme in the south and west. On the Korean Peninsula, moderately warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in the north and severe anomalies in the south. Intense warm anomalies are forecast for most of Japan.

Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected throughout Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Anomalies will be exceptional in Sulawesi and northwestern New Guinea; and extreme from eastern Myanmar into Thailand and pockets of northern Laos, and in western Borneo.

In Australia, temperatures will be moderately warmer than normal in Top End, Northern Territory and in the Outback from the western edge of the Gibson Desert past Alice Springs. Warmer than normal temperatures will prevail in the east through Queensland and eastern New South Wales. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the region west of Brisbane and severe leading northwest. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are expected in Tasmania. In New Zealand, North Island can expected relatively normal temperatures but moderate to extreme anomalies are forecast for South Island .

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released February 2, 2021 which includes forecasts for February 2021 through October 2021 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued January 25 through January 31, 2021.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags