ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List February 2021

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST FEBRUARY 2021

15 February 2021

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in November 2020 and running through October 2021 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List February 15, 2021 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through April 2021 indicates that water deficits will shrink, but intense deficits are forecast in New Mexico, Colorado, North Dakota, and Florida. Surpluses will shrink in the Northwest, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic, but will emerge in Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

Canada: The forecast through April 2021 indicates that intense water deficits in southern Manitoba will downgrade but will be severe. Deficits in southern Saskatchewan will shrink. Exceptional deficits will persist in many regions of eastern Canada. Surpluses are forecast in southern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through April 2021 indicates persistent water deficits in much of Mexico, downgrading in the east, but intensifying in north-central and central Pacific states. Surpluses will downgrade in southern Mexico but remain intense in Central America.

South America: The forecast through April 2021 indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably overall but will remain widespread in Brazil and southern Chile, and will be severe to exceptional on the Paraná River. Surpluses will emerge in a wide belt across the northern portion of the continent.

Europe: The forecast through April 2021 indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade somewhat but remain widespread in western European Russia, the U.K. and Ireland, Central Europe, and the northern Balkans. Deficits will persist in Estonia, Latvia, Germany, and Belgium.

Africa: The forecast through April 2021 indicates that widespread water deficits in the north and the Horn will shrink and downgrade. Surpluses will persist in the eastern Sahel, shrink in East Africa, and increase in Botswana, spilling into nearby nations and through Namibia to the coast.

Middle East: The forecast through April 2021 indicates that widespread water surpluses will shrink, persisting in Syria, Mosul, and northern Iran. Deficits will increase on the Arabian Peninsula, but exceptional deficits will shrink. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through April 2021 indicates that intense water deficits will persist in Russia from the Gulf of Ob through the Central Siberian Plateau and will emerge in Trans Volga. Surpluses are forecast in the Ob River Watershed. In Kazakhstan, deficits will increase near the Caspian Sea.

South Asia: The forecast through April 2021 indicates that intense water surpluses will persist in India coast to coast through the southern Deccan Plateau. The Far Northeast will transition from surplus to deficit. Surpluses will persist in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through April 2021 indicates widespread water surpluses in Southeast Asia and the Philippines, and many pockets of surplus in Indonesia. Anomalies will be exceptional in central Vietnam, Cambodia, and Manila. Deficits will emerge in northern Myanmar.

East Asia: The forecast through April 2021 indicates widespread water deficits in Southeast China including extreme to exceptional anomalies. Surpluses will remain widespread and intense in Northeast China and in the Yellow River Watershed but will shrink and downgrade in the Yangtze region.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through April 2021 indicates that water deficits in Australia will retreat but a path will persist on the southwestern coast from Perth to Albany. Surpluses are forecast in Victoria and near the Lower Murray River in South Australia. In New Zealand, deficits are expected.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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