Canada: Severe water deficits will persist in southern MB

19 February 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through October 2021 indicates vast areas of water deficit in the eastern half of the nation. Areas of exceptional deficit include southern Newfoundland, New Brunswick, northeastern Quebec into western Labrador and along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and spanning the northern Quebec/Ontario border.

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Deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario, intense in Kenora District. Exceptional deficits are forecast on Hudson Bay in Manitoba and in a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg with surpluses elsewhere in the north reaching west into Saskatchewan. Severe deficits are forecast in southern Manitoba with exceptional anomalies around Winnipeg.

Northwestern Saskatchewan can expect conditions of severe to exceptional surplus leading north well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west into Alberta. Deficits are forecast in central Saskatchewan where its namesake river splits into north and south forks, and where the North Saskatchewan River crosses the border into Alberta. Surpluses are expected in a pocket east of Calgary, Alberta. Deficits will be intense in central Alberta in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed and in the province’s northwest corner spanning the border with British Columbia.

Deficits are forecast near British Columbia’s northern border, expanding as they reach well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories. Deficits are also forecast near Prince George, on Vancouver Island, and in the province’s southeast corner. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the Fraser River Watershed of the south where anomalies will be exceptional from Kamloops to Kelowna.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April 2021 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, on the Quebec/Labrador border, along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini, and spanning much of the Ontario/Quebec border. Surpluses will emerge in the easternmost reaches of Labrador and Quebec but will retreat south of the Gouin Reservoir. In Ontario, surpluses will increase west of Toronto but retreat north of Lake Superior. Widespread, intense deficits will persist in Northern Ontario, particularly Kenora District.

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Deficits in southern Manitoba, though downgrading, will be severe, reaching exceptional intensity near Winnipeg. Deficits in southern Saskatchewan will shrink, persisting in the southeast. Deficits in the Middle Athabasca River region of Alberta will downgrade somewhat. In British Columbia, deficits will shrink on Vancouver Island but remain intense and will downgrade across the northern border well into the Yukon and Northwest Territories.

From May through July 2021, deficits in the east will shrink though large, exceptional pockets will persist, and deficits will downgrade in Newfoundland and New Brunswick. Surpluses will shrink in Quebec and west of Toronto but intensify on Hudson Bay in northeastern Ontario. Deficits will moderate in southern Manitoba and disappear in southern Saskatchewan. Conditions on Vancouver Island will normalize as will much of northern British Columbia, but widespread surpluses will persist in the south.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2021 – indicates that deficits in the east will continue to shrink with many areas returning to normal. Deficits will remain widespread in Northern Ontario. Surpluses will shrink in northern Manitoba and southern British Columbia, and deficits in Alberta will shrink and downgrade.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Parts of the Prairie Provinces remain dry according to maps released by Agriculture Canada. Soil moisture levels in southern Saskatchewan were less than 40 percent of average at the end of January and much of southern Manitoba, its main agricultural area, was in severe drought. The potential impacts are nuanced since soil moisture in winter does not reflect snowpack on top of the soil. Still, a meteorologist from Environment Canada confirms that accumulated precipitation in the region is falling short this winter.

A snowstorm in early February dumped up to 40 cm (15 inches) of snow in the Maritimes, prompting businesses, government offices, and schools to close and knocking out power to thousands. Halifax Transit suspended service.

In the nation’s west, avalanches near Whistler, British Columbia claimed two lives over the course of just two days - a snowboarder and a backcountry skier.

In a study of flood-readiness conducted by the Intact Centre for Climate Adaptation, 16 Canadian cities received an average grade of C+ for 2019/20, showing no improvement from a similar study five years earlier.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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