Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits in Mexico

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits in Mexico

22 February 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending October 2021 indicates deficits of varying severity throughout northern and central Mexico. Anomalies will be especially intense in central Baja and the northeastern states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, reaching south through San Luis Potosi and into Querétaro.

In the south, surpluses are forecast in Tabasco, northern Chiapas, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo. Surpluses will be exceptional in a pocket of Chiapas.

Surpluses are also forecast in many regions of Central America and will be extreme in northern Honduras.

In the Caribbean, intense surpluses are forecast in Jamaica, pockets of Cuba, Port-au-Prince (Haiti), and the Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April 2021 indicates that water deficits of varying intensity will persist in the bulk of Mexico. While deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade in the east near the Gulf, becoming mild to moderate, deficits will persist and intensify in north-central states and central Pacific states. Anomalies will be exceptional in pockets of Chihuahua, much of central Durango and Zacatecas, and throughout Jalisco and much of Michoacán into Guerrero. A small pocket of surplus will persist in the Rio Batepito region along Sonora’s northern border. Surpluses will downgrade but persist in the southern states of Oaxaca, southern Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and the Yucatán Peninsula.

Widespread surpluses will persist throughout Central America and will include extreme to exceptional anomalies. Intense surpluses will also persist in Jamaica, Port-au-Prince, and the northern Bahamas. Transitional conditions are expected in Cuba as deficits emerge.

From May through July 2021, deficits and surpluses in Mexico will shrink and downgrade considerably leaving many regions with normal conditions. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast in the north and northeast including Baja, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. Deficits will be somewhat more intense in pockets of the Rio Grande region in northern Coahuila. Transitional conditions are forecast for the Rio Batepito region of Sonora. In Central America, surpluses will shrink and downgrade, persisting in northern Honduras, pockets of Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and western Panama. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Jamaica and will emerge in coastal pockets of Cuba as the rest of the nation normalizes. Severe surpluses are expected in the northern Bahamas.

The forecast for the final three months – August through October 2021 – indicates normal conditions for many regions of Mexico as deficits in the north retreat or downgrade. Intense deficits will, however, emerge in San Luis Potosi and into nearby areas in Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas. Surpluses will re-emerge in northern Sonora in the Rio Batepito region. Pockets of deficit will emerge in southern Mexico along the Gulf, in the Yucatan, and into Guatemala and Belize. Small pockets of surplus will linger in Costa Rica, Panama, and the Caribbean.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Intense rainfall throughout February affected many regions in the Caribbean and Central America. After 13 hours of heavy rainfall in Jamaica early in the month, several rivers overflowed in Portland Parish in the northeast damaging homes and blocking roadways.

Flooding in Caribbean Costa Rica claimed one life when a tree fell, crushing a home.

Later in February, intense rainfall forced evacuations in the Bay Islands Department (Islas de la Bahia) in Honduras as landslides and flooding ensued. Homes and streets flooded in Coxen Hole, the largest city on the island of Roatán, in what residents described as conditions worse than those brought by Hurricanes Eta and Iota in November.

Flooding was reported in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula affecting many homes in the communities of Mérida and Kanasín.

Freezing temperatures and extreme snowfall in Texas prompted officials to reduce natural gas exports to Mexico by 75 percent, forcing power outages and factory closures in Mexico’s northern states of Tamaulipas, Chihuahua and Nuevo Leon. Blackouts affected 2,600 Mexican factories and could result in losses of $2.7 billion. Mexico’s president has asked consumers to self-ration their use of electricity.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.