Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits near the Caspian will increase

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits near the Caspian will increase

24 February 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October 2021 indicates widespread deficits in much of the Caspian Basin and well into central Kazakhstan and much of Uzbekistan. Deficits will be exceptional in many areas. Widespread deficits are also forecast in many regions of Russia: the Volga River Watershed, the tundra region in the Northern European Plain, the central banks of the Gulf of Ob and the western reaches of the Ob River Watershed, the Lower Yenisei and Taz River regions, the region of the Lena River Watershed north of Lake Baikal, and a vast stretch from the Alden River (an eastern tributary of the Lena) to the Sea of Okhotsk (not shown).

Surpluses are forecast in coastal Arctic Russia, the region of the Middle Ob River and its right tributary, the Vakh River, much of the Tom River Watershed, around Irkutsk west of Lake Baikal, and between the Tyung and Markha Rivers in the western Lena River Watershed where anomalies will be exceptional.

In Kazakhstan, exceptional surpluses are expected in the north in the Ishim River Watershed including the capital Nur-Sultan (Astana). In addition to widespread deficits in Uzbekistan, deficits will also reach south into Turkmenistan though intense surpluses are expected near Turkmenistan’s Caspian Coast. Intense surpluses are also forecast for central Tajikistan and the southern portion of the Fergana Valley. Eastern Kyrgyzstan can expect surpluses of lesser intensity.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April 2021 indicates a vast expanse of intense water deficit in Russia from the central banks of the Gulf of Ob through much of the vast Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses are forecast in the coastal Arctic and the Ob River Watershed. Exceptional surpluses are expected along the Upper and Middle Yenisei River but exceptional deficits will prevail in the river’s lower region. Exceptional deficits will emerge in the Trans Volga region.

In Kazakhstan, surpluses will remain exceptional in the Ishim River region in the north, including in Nur-Sultan. Deficits will increase and intensify in the northwest and in the center of the country, reaching extreme intensity in the west, but transitional conditions (pink/purple) are also forecast. Moderate deficits will increase between the Caspian Sea and Uzbekistan. Moderate surpluses are forecast in the eastern Kazakh Upland. In Uzbekistan, intense surpluses along the Amu Darya River will disappear, while a pocket of exceptional surplus will emerge spanning the central Kazakh border east of the Aral Sea. Surpluses in Turkmenistan will downgrade. Surpluses are forecast in central and western Tajikistan, but deficits will emerge in the east. Surpluses are also forecast for eastern Kyrgyzstan.

From May through July 2021, widespread, intense deficits in Russia from the Gulf of Ob through Siberia will shrink, and deficits will transition to intense surpluses between the Tyung and Markha Rivers in the western Lena River Watershed. Deficits will increase in the Yenisei River Watershed as transitions occur (pink/purple). Surpluses will shrink in the Ob River Watershed and intense deficits are expected to emerge west of the Ob, through the Ural Mountains and into the tundra and northern Vychegda Lowland. Deficits in Trans Volga will downgrade but deficits will increase in the Ural River region and will be intense around Orenburg.

In Kazakhstan, near-normal water conditions are expected in the east, intense surpluses and transitional conditions in the north, and deficits in the west and center of the nation. A large pocket of exceptional surplus will persist in north-central Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan will be in transition from surplus to moderate deficit. Surpluses are forecast for central Tajikistan and eastern Kyrgyzstan.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2021 – indicates a distribution pattern of anomalies similar to the forecast for the prior three months though deficits will downgrade somewhat.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Muscovites were digging out from a record-breaking snowfall in February that dumped around 77 cm (30 inches) on the Russian capital. The city deployed 13,500 snow ploughs and 60,000 workers to clear streets and sidewalks. The winter storm disrupted air traffic, delaying 30 flights and cancelling five.

Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Water Resources is warning of irrigation water shortages if rainfall during the next two months does not meet averages, possibly suppressing the summer 2021 water supply by 25 percent. Increased consumption is expected to significantly reduce water in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya River Basins.

Over the past few years, downstream flow on the Shovvosoy River in Uzbekistan has “slowed to a trickle” according to Tut villagers who depend on the river for drinking water, livestock, and crops. Upstream construction of a dam and reservoir, reportedly built to support a mountain resort for the Uzbek president, has diverted desperately needed water, say the villagers.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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