South Asia: Water deficits will emerge in India's Far Northeast

South Asia: Water deficits will emerge in India’s Far Northeast

25 February 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October 2021 indicates widespread water surpluses in many regions of India. Surpluses are expected from Gujarat in the west through Maharashtra, coast to coast through the Deccan Plateau, and in southern Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka. Surpluses will be exceptional in the Tungabhadra River Basin in Karnataka reaching north nearly to Pune, Maharashtra. Anomalies will also be intense on India’s southeastern coast from Pondicherry and Sri Lanka’s east coast. Jammu and Kashmir in India’s far north will experience surpluses as will Jharkhand in the east.

Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Uttarakhand and southern Himachal Pradesh in the north, and in India’s Far Northeast where anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in central Assam.

Primarily moderate surpluses are expected from Katmandu through much of western Nepal, and in pockets of Bangladesh including the Ganges Delta. Intense surpluses will prevail in much of Pakistan west of the Indus River and surpluses of varying intensity in northern tributaries and the Hindu Kush. In Afghanistan, widespread, intense surpluses are expected in the west encompassing Herat and the Harirud River region, and exceptional surpluses surrounding Mazar-e Sharif in the northwest.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through April 2021 indicates that intense water surpluses will shrink in the region but will remain widespread. In India, intense surpluses will persist coast to coast through the southern Deccan Plateau with exceptional anomalies in Karnataka. Surpluses will intensify in Tamil Nadu, becoming exceptional on the coast, and will become somewhat more intense in Sri Lanka. India’s west coast regions will be in transition (pink/purple) as deficits emerge and moderate deficits will emerge in southwestern Rajasthan. Transitions are also forecast for eastern Andhra Pradesh. Intense surpluses will persist in Jharkhand, Bihar, and Jammu and Kashmir. Deficits in Uttarakhand will moderate.

Surpluses will remain intense in Bangladesh though the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink. Intense surpluses are also forecast from Nepal’s eastern half well into Bhutan, but central Nepal will be in transition. Surpluses will downgrade somewhat in northern Pakistan, remain exceptional west of the Indus River, while transitional conditions are forecast in the south as deficits emerge. In Afghanistan, surpluses will shrink and downgrade overall but remain widespread in the Harirud River region of the west and exceptional around Mazar-e Sharif.

From May through July 2021, surpluses will shrink, bringing near-normal conditions to Bangladesh, eastern Nepal, and Bhutan but some moderate surpluses will emerge in central Nepal. Surpluses will shrink in India, persisting in the Deccan Plateau, on the southeast coast, and in pockets of the far north. Moderate surpluses will emerge in eastern Odisha on the Bay of Bengal. In Pakistan, surpluses in the Hindu Kush will downgrade, but exceptional surpluses and transitional conditions are expected in the Indus River system with intense surpluses re-emerging in the south. Surpluses will shrink and moderate in Afghanistan but remain widespread in the west.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2021 – indicates widespread, primarily moderate surpluses in central and southeastern India and regions near Nepal, reaching through western Nepal. Near-normal conditions are forecast for Bangladesh, India’s Far Northeast, and Bhutan. Intense surpluses along with transitional conditions are expected in the Indus River system in Pakistan, and moderate surpluses in western Afghanistan.  

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Massive flooding in India’s northern state of Uttarakhand on 7 February has taken the lives of 70 people to date with many still missing. The flash flood, initially thought to be triggered by a glacial lake outburst but later attributed to a landslide revealed in satellite data, demolished a hydroelectric project in Tapovan on the Dhauliganga River, trapping many plant workers in a tunnel.

The government of India estimates that nearly 8.5 percent of cropped area in the nation was lost to flooding from 2017-2019, an area totaling 18.176 million hectares of land. The state of Madhya Pradesh suffered the greatest losses during that period. No figures have yet been released for 2020.

Drought conditions have taken hold of Balochistan Province in southwestern Pakistan after winter rainfall of 73 percent less than normal. The rabi crop - referring to crops sown in winter and harvested in spring - could face water shortages, warns the Pakistan Meteorological Department.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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