Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water surplus will persist in Cambodia

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water surplus will persist in Cambodia

25 February 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October 2021 indicates surpluses in many regions of Southeast Asia and throughout the Philippines and Indonesia.

Anomalies will be widespread in central and southern Vietnam with exceptional surpluses in Vietnam’s narrow neck reaching into Laos and extreme surpluses in the Central Highlands.

Surpluses ranging from moderate to extreme are forecast for Cambodia and southeastern Thailand, but anomalies will be exceptional in Peninsular Thailand. Malaysia can expect widespread surpluses. In Myanmar, surpluses will be less extensive with anomalies in its narrow southern extent and west of the Irrawaddy River. Scattered pockets of deficit and of surplus are expected in northern Myanmar.

Much of the Philippines will see surpluses of varying intensity with exceptional anomalies in Negros.

Surpluses are expected throughout Indonesia and island nations in the region. Areas of surplus include Borneo, pockets in Sumatra and Java, Sulawesi, the Lesser Sunda and Maluku Islands, and New Guinea. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in many pockets including Banda Aceh in northern Sumatra, eastern Java, and Flores Island.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April 2021 indicates widespread surpluses in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and eastern and southern Thailand. Anomalies will be exceptional in Vietnam’s narrow neck reaching into Laos, much of central Cambodia, and southeastern Thailand. A few isolated pockets of deficit are expected in northwestern Thailand. A complex patchwork of water conditions is forecast in Myanmar including exceptional surpluses in its narrow southern extent leading into Thailand, some pockets of moderate surplus in the east, deficits in the north, and transitional conditions along with pockets of intense deficit west of the Irrawaddy River. Primarily moderate surpluses are forecast in Malaysia, but anomalies will be widespread.

Surpluses are expected throughout the Philippines and will include exceptional anomalies surrounding Manila and in Negros. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Indonesia though pockets are forecast in many regions including Sumatra, eastern Java, the Lesser Sunda and Maluku Islands, and coastal regions of New Guinea.

From May through July 2021, surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Southeast Asia and the Philippines and near-normal conditions will return to the large islands in Indonesia. Surpluses will be widespread in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos but will moderate. Nearly normal water conditions are expected in Myanmar though some pockets of exceptional surplus will re-emerge near the Irrawaddy Delta and a pocket of moderate deficit will persist in the north. Moderate surpluses are expected in the central Philippines. Moderate surpluses are also forecast for pockets of Indonesia. Surpluses will increase in New Guinea though anomalies will be moderate.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2021 – indicates the emergence of widespread surpluses in Indonesia, Malaysian Borneo, and New Guinea. Near-normal water conditions are forecast for Southeast Asia with moderate surpluses in a band across the Central Highlands of Vietnam, severe deficits in Vietnam’s northwest corner, and a lingering pocket of moderate deficit in northern Myanmar

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
February brought torrential rainfall to Jakarta, Indonesia in the middle of the month, killing five people, submerging neighborhoods and electrical stations, and turning streets into rivers. Nearly 1,400 people were evacuated as floodwaters rose to 1.8 meters (nearly 6 feet). In early February, floodwaters ran red through the streets of Jenggot in central Java when several fabric dyeing factories in the region were inundated.

The approach of Tropical Storm Dujuan on 21 February forced the evacuation of 51,000 people from the southern and central Philippines. The storm disrupted ferry services and 36 domestic flights were cancelled. Several villages were submerged in flood waters.

Torrential rainfall hit the Thai beach town of Pattaya mid-month, flooding many roads as water levels rose to between 50 to 80 cm (19.7 to 31.5 inches) in some areas.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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