Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook March 2021

3 March 2021

OVERVIEW
Widespread, exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures are forecast in March 2021 for several regions including India and Japan. Conditions will be wetter than normal in South America from the Amazon River Basin through the Guianas region.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
In South America, the Brazilian Amazon is expected to be wetter than normal with wet conditions reaching into eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana. Anomalies will be exceptional in Guyana and parts of the Trombetas, Unini, and Purus Watersheds in Brazil. States in Brazil’s northeastern region can expect moderate to extreme precipitation deficits.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on… — Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Deficits are also expected in western Ecuador leading into Peru, generally moderate to severe, and deficits will follow the southern Cordillera Occidental Range in Peru. Some pockets of primarily moderate deficit are forecast near La Serena in Chile’s Coquimbo region, in Brazil’s southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, and the Argentine Pampas. Moderate surplus precipitation is expected throughout the Cordillera Orientals Range, the Chaco Boreal in Paraguay, San Juan Province in Argentina, and Patagonia.

In Central America, Nicaragua and southern Guatemala will see surpluses. Moderate precipitation deficits are forecast for northwestern Mexico. Likewise, the United States Southwest will be somewhat drier than normal, reaching severe intensity in the Upper Arkansas River region of central Colorado. Baton Rouge will be moderately drier and deficits are forecast in the Florida Panhandle and in central Florida. Anomalies will be severe from Tampa to Orlando.

In Canada, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for the northern regions of Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and reaching into the Severn River area of Ontario. Surpluses will be moderate on the eastern shore of Hudson Bay in Quebec. Some moderate deficits are forecast in a pocket near Edmonton, Alberta and spanning the central border of Alberta and Saskatchewan. In western Canada, conditions will be moderately wetter than normal in the Okanagan Valley of southern British Columbia.

Moderate precipitation deficits are forecast in many regions of Europe including southern England and Wales, France, Portugal and western Spain, central Germany, northern Italy, Slovakia, Hungary, and pockets in the Balkans. Surpluses are expected throughout northern Norway, across the border into Sweden, and from Finnish Lapland through the Kola Peninsula in Russia.

Some moderate surpluses are forecast in a few pockets of Africa including northeastern Morocco and southern Cote D’Ivoire. Moderate deficits are expected in the northern Ethiopian Highlands, southeastern Kenya, Namibia, and southern Botswana, but deficits will be severe in southern Uganda, northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, and west-central Tanzania.

Western Saudi Arabia will be moderately to severely drier than normal but much of the rest of the Middle East can expect nearly normal precipitation.

In Central Asia, conditions will also be near-normal with some moderate surpluses in northern Kazakhstan. Generally moderate surpluses are expected in large pockets across a vast region in Siberian Russia from the Tom River Watershed through the Lena River Watershed and parts of Far Eastern Russia.

India can expect pockets of moderate deficit across its central breadth and in the north, reaching into western Nepal. Elsewhere in South Asia, moderate deficits are also forecast for pockets of southern Pakistan, but moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in Sri Lanka.

In East Asia, western Tibet will be drier than normal as will its eastern extremes and into Yunnan. Conditions will be moderately wetter than normal in the region north of the Yellow River (Huang He), but more intense in the river’s Upper Reaches. Surpluses are also forecast in the Far Northeast near the Russian border, Guizhou Province in the south, and in South Korea. In Southeast Asia and the Pacific, some pockets of moderate deficit are expected in northern Myanmar, and moderate surpluses in southeastern Cambodia and pockets of Indonesia.

Western Australia will be moderately wetter than normal while some scattered pockets of moderate deficit are expected across the north.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for much of India and anomalies will be exceptional and particularly widespread in the west. Elsewhere in South Asia, Bangladesh, too, can expect exceptionally hotter conditions. Moderately warmer temperatures are forecast for much of Pakistan and Afghanistan but anomalies will be more intense in the north and will be exceptional near Karachi. Western Nepal will be warmer than normal.

In East Asia, nearly all of China will be warmer than normal. Exceptionally hotter temperatures will dominate much of Tibet, western Sichuan, Qinghai, and Inner Mongolia. Moderately warmer conditions are expected in Southeast China but severe to exceptional pockets are expected. Anomalies will be extreme around Shanghai, severe in the Yangtze Basin reaching to Three Gorges Dam, and even more intense in Chongqing. Mongolia will be much warmer than normal, and extreme to exceptional anomalies are forecast for the Korean Peninsula. Japan, too, will be exceptionally hotter.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on t… — Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In Southeast Asia and the Pacific, Myanmar will be exceptionally hotter than normal, and warm anomalies ranging from moderate to severe are forecast for Thailand, Laos, southern Vietnam, and Malaysia. Indonesia will be warmer than normal as well, with severe to exceptional anomalies expected. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for Papua New Guinea and the Philippines.

Much of Australia’s northern half will be warmer than the norm, with exceptionally hotter temperatures in eastern Queensland from Rockhampton south past Brisbane and anomalies of varying intensity reaching well inland. Near Alice Springs at the edge of the Outback, temperatures will be extremely warmer, with severe to extreme anomalies leading from there into the Kimberley region of Western Australia. Near the central coast of Western Australia temperatures will be moderately cooler.

Many regions in Russia will be warmer than normal with widespread moderate to severe anomalies in Siberia and western European Russia. The Kamchatka Peninsula in the east can expect cooler than normal temperatures. In Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s eastern half will be moderately warmer as will the eastern regions of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Warm anomalies in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will be more intense.

The Middle East can expect much warmer temperatures in Southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Bahrain, Qatar, and western United Arab Emirates. In Iran, warm anomalies will be extreme near the Strait of Hormuz, downgrading gradually as they reach inland and far to the north in a broad path through the center of the nation.

Temperatures will be warmer than normal in parts of West Africa and will include exceptionally warmer temperatures in a region radiating from western Niger into neighboring countries. The coastal West African nations of Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, and Sierra Leone can expect severe warm anomalies will exceptional anomalies in the capital cities of Conakry (Guinea) and Freetown (Sierra Leon). Around the Gulf of Guinea, severe to extreme warm anomalies are forecast in Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon, with anomalies reaching into central African nations. Democratic Republic of the Congo will be warmer with severe anomalies in its northern half and extreme anomalies in the Central Congo Basin. Neighboring Rwanda and Burundi will be somewhat warmer than normal as well.

Angola will be moderately warmer than normal though anomalies will be much more intense near the southwestern coast around Lubango. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal from north-central Namibia through much of Botswana and into Zimbabwe. A cool pocket is also expected in northwestern Mozambique, though its northeastern region will be moderately warmer. In South Africa, Western Cape will be moderately warmer. Most of Madagascar will see abnormally warm temperatures with extreme anomalies in the northeast.

Some warm anomalies are forecast for pockets of East Africa and the Horn including severe anomalies in northern Ethiopia.

The forecast for Europe indicates severe to extreme warm anomalies in Scandinavia and generally moderate warm anomalies in the Baltics, Belarus, and northern Ukraine. England will be moderately warmer than normal with conditions reaching across the Northern Sea to Belgium and the Netherlands, but Scotland and Ireland could see severe anomalies. Moderately warmer temperatures are expected in much of France. However, Bordeaux in the southwest and the Alps in the southeast leading into Italy and Switzerland will see severe anomalies. The western Iberian Peninsula will be moderately warmer. Sardinia can expect warm anomalies that will be severe.

In South America, exceptionally hotter temperatures are forecast in northeastern Brazil and in a broad, winding path reaching south. These conditions will stretch from Amapá in the north to Rio Grande do Norte in the east and snake south through Tocantins, Goiás, and into São Paulo State with anomalies of lesser intensity in nearby regions. Temperatures are expected to be moderately warmer than normal in much of the Argentine Pampas, central Chile, western Bolivia, central Peru into Acre in Brazil, eastern Ecuador into nearby regions of Peru and Columbia, and French Guiana. Anomalies will be severe from just south of Santiago, Chile across the border into the Cuyo region of Argentina. The vast Orinoco River Basin in Venezuela will be cooler than normal with anomalies reaching exceptional intensity.

In Central America and the Caribbean, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas will be much warmer than normal; southern Guatemala will be moderately warmer; and northern Nicaragua into Honduras will be cooler.

A vast region of central Mexico is forecast to be warmer than normal and will include widespread, exceptional anomalies. Warm anomalies are expected from Chihuahua in the north to Michoacán on the Pacific. Moderately warmer temperatures are forecast in the south from the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

The United States Great Plains and Texas will be moderately warmer than normal. The Great Lakes States can expect severe warm anomalies leading to the East Coast. The Deep South will also be warmer than normal with severe anomalies overall and extreme pockets in central Georgia, the Gulf Coast, and central Florida.

Anomalies in the U.S. Plains and Great Lakes will reach north through a vast expanse in Canada. Severe to extreme warm anomalies are forecast for Ontario and Manitoba, and severe anomalies from northern Saskatchewan into the territories north. Anomalies will be moderate in Quebec, southern Saskatchewan, and northeastern Alberta into Northwest Territories.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released March 2, 2021 which includes forecasts for March 2021 through November 2021 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued February 22 through February 28, 2021.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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