ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List March 2021

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST MARCH 2021

15 March 2021

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in December 2020 and running through November 2021 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List March 15, 2021 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through May indicates that water deficits of varying intensity will increase, blanketing much of the West, Southwest, Rockies, Texas, the Deep South, and Florida. Anomalies will be exceptional in Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico. Intense deficits are also forecast in North Dakota.

Canada: The forecast through May indicates that exceptional water deficits will persist in large pockets in the east. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast from north of Lake Ontario through Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City. Deficits are expected to persist from southern Manitoba into Saskatchewan.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will increase in Mexico with exceptional deficits in Baja, Sonora, Chihuahua, and from Sinaloa through Nayarit. Surpluses will moderate in southern Mexico but remain widespread in Central America.

South America: The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade overall but remain widespread in Brazil with exceptional anomalies in Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo State. Areas of surplus include eastern Colombia and pockets in the Guianas region.

Europe: The forecast through May indicates that water surpluses will shrink considerably but will persist in western European Russia and pockets in the land-locked countries of Central Europe and in the Balkans. Intense deficits will persist in Estonia, Latvia, and north-central Germany.

Africa: The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade though exceptional deficits will persist in the north. Surpluses are forecast across the Sahel, exceptional in southern Chad. Surpluses will shrink in East Africa but remain widespread from Botswana into Namibia.

Middle East: The forecast through May indicates that water surpluses will shrink, persisting in north-central Syria and in pockets of western Iran. Widespread, intense deficits are forecast for western Turkey, from western Oman into Yemen, and in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through May indicates a vast expanse of water surplus from the eastern Ob River Watershed in Russia through the Middle and Upper portions of the Yenisei Watershed, and the Tom River Watershed. TransVolga will transition from surplus to intense deficit.

South Asia: The forecast through May indicates that a vast extent of exceptional water deficit will emerge in Rajasthan and nearby Indian states. Moderate to extreme deficits are expected in India’s Far Northeast. Widespread surpluses will persist in southern India and Bangladesh.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through May indicates widespread water surpluses in the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and eastern Java, with extreme anomalies in the central Philippines. Areas of deficit include Kuala Lumpur and southwestern Borneo.

East Asia: The forecast through May indicates that water surpluses will remain widespread in Northeast China and the Yellow River Basin but will shrink in the southern Yangtze Basin. Widespread deficits will persist in Southeast China, shrinking in Guangdong. Deficits in Taiwan will moderate.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through May indicates water deficits near Rockhampton, Queensland and pockets in New Zealand. Surpluses are forecast near Armidale on Australia’s southeast coast, in the Lower Murray River region, and in the Avon River Basin in Western Australia.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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