Middle East: Water deficits will persist in Turkey

Middle East: Water deficits will persist in Turkey

29 March 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending November 2021 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions of the Arabian Peninsula, interspersed with transitional conditions. Areas with exceptional deficits include Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, southeastern Saudi Arabia, and spanning the border of Yemen and Oman.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in much of Turkey with exceptional anomalies along the central Black Sea Coast, west of Lake Tuz in Central Anatolia, and southwest of Lake Van in the east. Deficits will also be intense in coastal Georgia.

Exceptional surpluses and transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast for north-central Syria, but deficits are expected around Aleppo. In Iraq, deficits are forecast west of the Euphrates River, and surpluses and transitional conditions around Mosul.

Surpluses will follow Iran’s central Caspian Coast reaching inland to Tehran with transitional conditions near Turkmenistan. Surpluses are also forecast near Lake Urmia, in Lorestan Province, and in a large pocket on the northeastern end of the Persian Gulf. Deficits will be widespread and intense in the Iranian provinces near the southern Persian Gulf, mixed with transitional conditions near the Strait of Hormuz. Widespread deficits of varying intensity are also forecast for central Iran.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through May indicates that surpluses will shrink in the region though intense anomalies will persist in north-central Syria, and moderate to extreme anomalies in Iran along the central Caspian Coast, near Lake Urmia, in Lorestan Province, and at the northeast end of the Persian Gulf.

Deficits will be widespread in western Turkey and will intensify. Widespread deficits will emerge in Saudi Arabia transitioning from prior surplus, and anomalies will be severe to exceptional in Riyadh Province. In Yemen, moderate deficits are expected in the west and exceptional deficits on its eastern border reaching well into Oman. Moderate deficits will persist in Qatar and United Arab Emirates, and will emerge in much of central and southern Iran with more intense anomalies along with transitional conditions near the Strait of Hormuz.

From June through August, surpluses will nearly disappear. Deficits will increase in Turkey and will emerge in the Levant along the Mediterranean Coast where anomalies will be severe to exceptional. Deficits will persist in much of Saudi Arabia, especially Riyadh, but will retreat from Yemen and Oman. Moderate deficits will persist around the Persian Gulf and in the bulk of Iran, intensifying in some pockets of Yazd Province in the center of the country. Exceptional deficits and transitional conditions will persist near the Strait of Hormuz.

In the final quarter – September through November – deficits will shrink and downgrade, persisting primarily in Saudi Arabia. Surpluses will re-emerge in north-central Syria and some pockets of Iran along its eastern Caspian Coast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought threatens Syria’s northern extreme as water levels in the Tishrin Dam on the Euphrates River east of Aleppo drop. Dam engineers say that current water levels support generation of only 10 percent of northern Syria’s electricity requirements, forcing electricity rationing to just six hours a day. Ground water aquifers are at historic lows say farmers in the region, and access to drinking water has been negatively affected as well with limited supply and quality.

An unusual March snowfall along with some heavy downpours helped increase the water levels in Turkey’s depleted dams. Both Istanbul and Ankara received snow, up to 30 centimeters (11.81 inches) in some areas. Water levels in the nation’s dams went from a low on 9 January of 19 percent to 68 percent.

In Iran, however, a mid-March snowstorm left 5 people dead and 50 injured from avalanches and car crashes. The storm also knocked out power and caused flight delays. More than 6,500 people were rescued in 22 governates.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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