Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits forecast in TransVolga

30 March 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November 2021 indicates widespread deficits in much of the Caspian Basin, moderating as they reach into central Kazakhstan. Deficits are forecast for most of Uzbekistan and will reach exceptional intensity in the east, downgrading as they trail into eastern Turkmenistan.

Exceptional surpluses are forecast in a pocket along Turkmenistan’s central Caspian Coast; a large pocket east of the Aral Sea in the northern Kyzylkum Desert spanning Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan; and in the Ishim River Watershed of northern Kazakhstan. Intense surpluses are also forecast for central Tajikistan and the southern portion of the Fergana Valley. Eastern Kyrgyzstan can expect surpluses of lesser intensity.

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In Russia, deficits are forecast in: TransVolga; the northern portion of the Vychedga Lowland; parts of the tundra region in the Northern European Plain; the central banks of the Gulf of Ob and the western reaches of the Ob River Watershed; the Lower Yenisei and Taz River regions; the Lena River Watershed from Yakutsk to the region north of Lake Baikal; and a vast stretch from the Alden River (an eastern tributary of the Lena) to the Sea of Okhotsk (not shown). Deficits will be exceptional in many areas.

Surpluses are forecast in coastal Arctic Russia, the eastern reaches of the Ob River Watershed, much of the Tom River Watershed, around Irkutsk west of Lake Baikal, and between the Olenyok and Markha Rivers near the Lower Lena River Watershed where anomalies will be exceptional.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May indicates a vast expanse of water surplus from the eastern Ob River Watershed through the Middle and Upper portions of the Yenisei Watershed, and the Tom River Watershed to the south. The TranVolga region will transition from surplus to intense deficit. Intense deficits are also forecast on the middle banks of the Gulf of Ob and through the region of the Lower Yenisei River where transitional conditions are also expected (pink/purple). Deficits will intensify in a large pocket in the Lena River Watershed around Yakutsk, becoming exceptional. Surpluses are forecast in the coastal Arctic.

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In Central Asia, exceptional surpluses are expected in the Ishim River region in northern Kazakhstan including Nur-Sultan; in the Kyzylkum Desert spanning Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan; in a pocket on Turkmenistan’s central Caspian Coast; and in central Tajikistan. Surpluses of lesser intensity are forecast for eastern Kyrgyzstan. Surpluses in Turkmenistan will shrink and moderate deficits will emerge in the east. Extreme deficits will emerge in far eastern Uzbekistan; deficits in the Pamir River Watershed of eastern Tajikistan will intensify, becoming exceptional; and several pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in Kazakhstan.

From June through August, surpluses will shrink as deficits emerge. Widespread intense deficits will emerge in the Pechora River Watershed in Russia, and, transitioning from surplus, in the region past the Urals reaching along the eastern arm of the Ob River. Intense deficits will increase in the Yenisei River Watershed. Deficits in TransVolga will downgrade as will deficits around Yakutsk in the Lena River Watershed. Surpluses in the Northern European Plain will shrink, and exceptional surpluses will re-emerge near the Lower Lena River Watershed between the Olenyok and Markha Rivers.

In Kazakhstan, near-normal water conditions are expected in the east, intense surpluses and transitional conditions in the north, and deficits in the west. Deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and surpluses in central Tajikistan and far eastern Kyrgyzstan.

The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates that deficits will shrink, persisting mainly in the Yenisei River Watershed.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Spurred by the lowest water level in a decade at its Toktogul Reservoir, Kyrgyzstan has entered into a power-sharing agreement with Uzbekistan. At the end of March, the Toktogul hydropower facility’s reservoir held nearly 25 percent less water than at the same time a year ago. To preserve water for its own power production, Kyrgyzstan could limit the water flowing to its downstream neighbor, Uzbekistan, curtailing vital agricultural irrigation. The mutual agreement stipulates that Uzbekistan will supply Kyrgyzstan with up to 750 million kilowatt hours of electricity at nominal rates from March through October, and again in March and April of 2022. In return, Kyrgyzstan will deliver an equivalent amount to Uzbekistan from June through August for the next three years.

The two countries also recently negotiated a settlement resolving border disputes that should clarify collective resource use including an important reservoir, the Orto-Tokoi reservoir - also known as the Kasan-Sai reservoir - located in Kyrgyz territory but used for irrigation on Uzbek farms.

A recent study from Oxford University indicates that Kazakhstan’s largest lake, Lake Balkhash - a primary source of drinking water for the nation, is being threatened by agricultural expansion in China. Lake Balkhash receives most of its water, 80 percent, from the Ile River that originates in Xinjiang Province, China where water-intensive rice cultivation has expanded significantly.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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