South Asia: Water deficits will emerge in Rajasthan

South Asia: Water deficits will emerge in Rajasthan

30 March 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November 2021 indicates water surpluses in the southern Deccan Plateau of India, coastal Tamil Nadu, northern Gujarat, Jharkhand, and Jammu and Kashmir in the far north. Anomalies will be exceptional in pockets of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Jammu and Kashmir. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in northern India reaching exceptional intensity in Punjab. India’s Far Northeast can expect widespread moderate to severe deficits, conditions also forecast for the shared border of Chhattisgarh and Odisha.

Surpluses are expected in Sri Lanka and along the Gandaki River through Nepal and into India. In Pakistan, surpluses are forecast in the Hindu Kush; deficits east of the northern Indus River and also in much of Baluchistan Province in the southwest; and, a wide, winding path of transitional conditions (purple/pink) down the center of the nation and along the coast through Karachi.

In Afghanistan, widespread, intense surpluses are expected in the west encompassing Herat and the Harirud River region. Intense deficits are forecast in a pocket of the Lower Helmand River Basin, and moderate deficits in pockets north of Kabul.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will increase and intensify in northern India, creating a vast block of exceptional deficit in Rajasthan and deficits of similar intensity in Haryana and nearby states in the north, moderating as they reach south into Madhya Pradesh. Moderate to extreme deficits are expected in India’s Far Northeast. Widespread surpluses will persist in the southern Deccan Plateau along with areas of transition. Surpluses will also persist in coastal Tamil Nadu and eastern Bihar, but transitions are forecast in a pocket of western Jharkhand where exceptional surpluses have persisted. Transitional conditions are also forecast from Gujarat into neighboring states.

Surpluses will shrink somewhat in Sri Lanka, and downgrade but remain widespread in Bangladesh and eastern Nepal. The forecast for Pakistan indicates that surpluses will shrink in the north, persisting in the Hindu Kush. Moderate deficits are forecast east of the Indus River and in nation’s southwest. Transitional conditions will dominate a path down the center of the country and along the coast through Karachi. In Afghanistan, surpluses will shrink and downgrade, persisting in the west.

From June through August, anomalies will shrink and downgrade considerably, leaving nearly normal conditions in many regions. Surpluses will persist in a wide path from south-central Maharashtra through Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, and in eastern Tamil Nadu and a pocket in Jammu and Kashmir. Moderate surpluses are expected to emerge along Odisha’s southern coast. Pockets of deficit will persist in India’s Far Northeast and some moderate deficits in northern states. Conditions in Bangladesh will return to normal; surpluses will persist in northern and eastern Sri Lanka and along the Gandaki River through Nepal. Deficits will recede in Pakistan and intense surpluses will re-emerge in some areas of former transition including around Karachi and pockets in the center of the country. Moderate surpluses are forecast in western Afghanistan.

The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates surpluses in central and southern Pakistan, western Afghanistan, and eastern Jammu and Kashmir.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Early in March, warm temperatures triggered a snow avalanche in northern Afghanistan’s Badakhshan Province leaving 15 dead and five injured. The country’s National Hydrometeorology Department issued warnings of heavy snow and rainfall in at least 24 of the northern provinces.

Heavy rain in India’s northern Jammu and Kashmir region late in the month created landslides that claimed one life, injured several people, and blocked a major highway.

In the nearby state of Himachal Pradesh, however, drought has cut forecasts for the rabi season pea crop by half, say farmers in Karsog municipality. Precipitation this past winter was not enough to recharge the state’s water sources, says the state’s water minister, who emphasized the need for drought preparations in the coming months. The drinking water supply is limited in some regions of the state.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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