Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Severe water surplus forecast in the Philippines

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Severe water surplus forecast in the Philippines

21 April 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December 2021 indicates intense surpluses in Java and through the Lesser Sunda Islands. Surpluses will be exceptional in eastern Java, Bali, and Flores Island, and in Banda Aceh in Sumatra’s northern tip.

Moderate surpluses are forecast for Borneo’s northern reaches, but anomalies will be more intense in the delta area of the south around the city of Banjarmasin. Elsewhere in the region surpluses are forecast for Sulawesi’s northern arm, the Maluku Islands, and pockets in New Guinea.

In the Philippines, surpluses are also forecast and will be severe to extreme in the central islands, generally moderate in Luzon and western Mindanao.

Normal water conditions are expected in much of Southeast Asia. Moderate surpluses are forecast in Vietnam’s narrow neck and in the Central Highlands. Rakhine State in western Myanmar can expect surpluses as can the Lower Irrawaddy region, pockets in Peninsular Thailand, Malaysia’s peninsular tip, and Singapore. Some pockets of moderate deficits are forecast near Kuala Lumpur and in central Sumatra.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June indicates that surpluses will downgrade and shrink overall but will remain widespread in Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and from eastern Java through the Lesser Sunda Islands. Surpluses are forecast for much of Vietnam, many pockets in Cambodia and Thailand, Peninsular and southwestern Myanmar, and Malaysia’s peninsular tip. Surpluses will persist in the central and northern Philippines and in Mindanao’s western arm, and will be severe in the central islands. In Indonesia, surpluses will be extreme on Flores Island and severe in nearby islands. Surpluses elsewhere include Sumatra’s northern tip, northern Sulawesi, the northern Maluku Islands, and pockets of New Guinea. Widespread deficits will emerge in Sumatra, and deficits are forecast for pockets of western Borneo.

From July through September, water conditions will normalize in most of the region. Pockets of moderate surplus will persist in the central Philippines, northern Sulawesi, eastern Java, and New Guinea. Extreme surpluses will persist on Flores Island, and moderate surpluses will emerge on Seram Island in the Banda Sea. Moderate deficits will emerge in eastern Mindanao in the Philippines and small pockets in western Cambodia.

The forecast for the final months – October through December – indicates primarily normal water conditions with pockets of moderate surplus in Indonesia, the central Philippines, and Vietnam’s Central Highlands, and some moderate deficits in the far reaches of Peninsular Thailand.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Tropical Cyclone Seroja tore through eastern Indonesia from late March into early April, triggering landslides and flooding on Flores Island and in Timor-Leste. In Indonesia’s West and East Nusa Tenggara provinces 70 deaths were reported while 27 people died in Timor-Leste, many in the nation’s capital, Dili. Deaths in the nearby islands could push the number of fatalities to over 150. New Zealand has pledged $1 million in assistance to the tiny nation of Timor-Leste and Australia will contribute $7 million.

The storm continued its slow journey for another week, reaching the Philippines in mid-April, dumping 20 inches (500 mm) in some areas. Evacuation orders were issued for 100,000 people in Catanduanes province. Seven deaths were reported.

Heavy rainfall in Vietnam’s northern provinces claimed three lives as flash flooding and a landslide hit on the 17th of the month. Farther south in the Mekong Delta city of Can Tho, a massive flood prevention project with an estimated price tag of $340 million is in the planning stages and will include embankments, pumping stations, sewage systems, reservoirs, and a re-routed traffic pattern.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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