South Asia: Water deficits forecast for India's Far Northeast

South Asia: Water deficits forecast for India’s Far Northeast

22 April 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December 2021 indicates water surpluses in the western portion of India’s Deccan Plateau in central Maharashtra and Karnataka, and through Andhra Pradesh to the east coast. From there, surpluses will trail south through coastal Tamil Nadu. Surpluses are also expected in northern Gujarat and in far north India in Jammu and Kashmir.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in northern India radiating from Punjab where anomalies will reach exceptional intensity. India’s Far Northeast can expect widespread moderate to severe deficits. Some moderate deficits are forecast for central Odisha.

Surpluses are expected in northern Sri Lanka and along its east coast. In Nepal, surpluses will trace the path of the Gandaki River into India. Surpluses are forecast for Pakistan’s northern provinces; moderate deficits east of the Ravi River; and moderate to exceptional deficits in Baluchistan Province in the southwest. In Afghanistan, deficits are expected in the north and in the Lower Helmand River region of the south where anomalies will be exceptional; surpluses are forecast in the west between the Helmand and Harirud Rivers.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses in India will persist in the Deccan Plateau, retreat from the Western Ghats nearby, and persist through Andhra Pradesh to the east coast. Anomalies will be exceptional in pockets along the western edge of the Plateau. Surpluses will re-emerge in Gujarat, in a pocket of western Jharkhand, and across Indian border areas into Nepal and Bangladesh. Surpluses are expected to persist in Jammu and Kashmir. Deficits in India will shrink and downgrade overall but will re-emerge in the Far Northeast.

Much of Bangladesh will return to normal water conditions with moderate surpluses along the Pasur (Pusur) River, a Ganges tributary, in the southwest. In Pakistan, surpluses will persist in the north, shrinking somewhat, and deficits in the southwest will downgrade. Surpluses in Afghanistan will shrink with severe anomalies persisting between the Helmand and Harirud Rivers. 

From July through September, anomalies will shrink and downgrade considerably, leaving nearly normal conditions in many regions. Surpluses will persist in a shrunken path from Maharashtra through Karnataka, veering east through Andhra Pradesh, and south skimming the coast. Nearby in Sri Lanka, surpluses will re-emerge in the north and east. Surpluses will persist in eastern Jammu and Kashmir and will emerge on the Gandaki River in Bihar leading through central Nepal. Deficits in India’s Far Northeast will shrink. In Pakistan, widespread surpluses will re-emerge down the center of the nation and the southeast, while deficits on Baluchistan’s northern border become exceptional. A pocket of surplus will persist in western Afghanistan.

The forecast for the final months – October through December – indicates surpluses emerging through the Eastern Ghats of India. Surpluses are also forecast in Jammu and Kashmir, central and northern Pakistan, and western Afghanistan. Deficits are forecast for central Rajasthan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Nepal is fighting its worst fire season since officials began record-keeping a decade ago. The battle has claimed five lives since January and dry conditions are keeping fuel loads high. The resulting air pollution prompted schools to close for four days, affecting millions of children across the nation. Winter rainfall in Nepal measured just 25 percent of average and 2,700 fires burned between November and the end of March.

In the neighboring Indian state of Uttarakhand, winter rainfall was down by 56 percent through January and February and, like Nepal, the region has seen a rise in forest fires over the winter months. Crop losses include wheat and paddy crops.

Many regions of Sindh and Balochistan, Pakistan’s southern provinces, experienced precipitation deficits of 75 percent, according to the national meteorological department. The World Bank recently announced $200 million in assistance to the Sindh Resilience Project to mitigate drought and flood in the region. Karachi, the nation’s capital located in Sindh and home to nearly 15 million people, is facing a water shortage as temperatures reached 43.6C degrees (110.5F) in early April, the highest in 74 years.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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