Africa: Water deficits in the Horn will shrink

23 April 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December 2021 indicates exceptional water deficits across North Africa. Pockets of mixed conditions are also forecast (pink/purple). Surpluses are expected in much of the Sahel, particularly Chad.

In the Horn of Africa, deficits are forecast in Somaliland and intense surpluses and transitional conditions in the Nugaal region of northern Somalia.

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Around the southern Gulf of Guinea, extreme deficits are forecast in southwestern Cameroon and exceptional deficits in Equatorial Guinea and southern Gabon. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, moderate deficits are expected in the central Congo River Basin and in the south near Angola; extreme deficits are forecast near the southern half of Lake Tanganyika, but moderate surpluses are expected west of Rwanda and Burundi and into those nations. Surpluses are also forecast near Kinshasa. Angola can expect deficits, moderate overall but more intense in the northwest.

In East Africa, surpluses are forecast for Tanzania and Malawi and will include extreme anomalies. Surpluses are also forecast for many regions in southern Africa including central Namibia, throughout Botswana and into southern Zambia and South Africa, southern Mozambique and its northwestern corner, and surrounding the Gariep Dam in South Africa.

Exceptional deficits are forecast for coastal northeastern Mozambique in the Ligonha River Watershed, moderate deficits in the Upper Vaal River region of South Africa, and moderate deficits in central Zimbabwe. In Madagascar, exceptional deficits are expected in the Lower Tsiribihina River region on the west coast, deficits of lesser intensity in the Betsiboka River and Maningory River regions north of the capital city of Antananarivo, and surpluses in the Mangoky River region of the south.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through June indicates that deficits in the Horn of Africa and around the Gulf of Guinea will shrink and downgrade, but deficits will increase across much of northern Africa, moderate overall though large pockets of exceptional deficit are expected. Mixed conditions are forecast for Egypt and transitional conditions in northern Sudan. Surpluses are forecast across the Sahel, re-emerging in the west, and anomalies will be exceptional in southern Chad and northern Nigeria. Intense deficits will persist in central Eritrea. Other regions with a forecast of deficit include Somaliland, northern Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo near the southern half of Lake Tanganyika, the Upper Vaal River region in South Africa, and along the Tsiribihina and Maningory Rivers in Madagascar. Surpluses will shrink in East Africa, persisting primarily in Tanzania, Kenya, and Malawi, but will remain widespread in Botswana and central Namibia. Surpluses in southern Mozambique and around the Gariep Dam in South Africa will shrink. Deficits in Madagascar will shrink and surpluses in the southwest will increase.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202101-202112_3mo_twitter.png

From July through September, deficits will persist in North Africa, shrinking in the southern Sahara. Surpluses will shrink and moderate in the Sahel; emerge in Eritrea and Ethiopia; and persist in Kenya’s northwest corner, Tanzania, southern Malawi, southern Mozambique, central Namibia, much of Botswana and into South Africa. Areas of deficit include Gabon’s southern tip, the northern Congo Basin and near southern Lake Tanganyika, northern Angola, and the Upper Vaal River region.

The forecast for the final quarter – October through December – indicates that deficits will shrink and moderate in the north. Surpluses are forecast for the Sahel, Eritrea and northern Ethiopia, eastern Tanzania, central Namibia, Botswana, and southern Mozambique.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought in Somalia has displaced over 100,000 people since October and left 2.7 million in need of humanitarian assistance. By one estimate, 75 percent of Somali families lack safe drinking water.

In neighboring Ethiopia, belg rainfall - the short rainy season during March and April - has been considerably below average in southern reaches of the Tigray region, as reported by the Famine Early Warnings System Network, delaying ground preparation and planting. Conflict in the area has eclipsed drought concerns, as forced migration due to violence leaves fields uncultivated.

In an effort to reduce its dependency on hydroelectricity generated from Lake Karibe reservoir on the Zambezi River, Zimbabwe has entered into an agreement with Russia’s state-owned nuclear company, Rosatom, to develop nuclear power. Drought at the Karibe hydropower facility contributed to frequent black-outs in the nation last year.

Drought conditions in Angola are expected to have a significant impact on cereal production, particularly maize, forcing an increase in imports. Meat and milk production are also expected to decline as pasture and water resources dry up. In the nation’s capital, however, flash flooding left 14 dead in mid-April.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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