Europe: Water deficits will persist in the Baltics & Germany

Europe: Water deficits will persist in the Baltics & Germany

23 April 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December 2021 indicates exceptional water deficits in Estonia and Latvia with deficits of lesser intensity in Lithuania and into western Belarus. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in Sweden’s southern half and will be especially widespread and intense in central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed, reaching across the border into Norway. Finnish Lapland can expect exceptional deficits.

Widespread, intense surpluses are forecast in Murmansk, Russia, and surpluses of varying intensity in northern Sweden, northern Norway, pockets along Finland’s Baltic coast, and in the Desna River Watershed, a tributary of the Dnieper, in Western European Russia. Deficits are expected in the Upper Mezen River region of northern Russia.

Ireland and the United Kingdom can expect surpluses. Deficits are forecast for Belgium, north central and southern Germany, near Lake Balaton in western Hungary, central and southern France, and Sardinia, Sicily, and Bologna in Italy. Anomalies will be intense in the Ardennes region of Belgium, Germany’s Harz Mountains, and Sardinia and Bologna, Italy. Surpluses are forecast for many regions in the Balkans, particularly Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, and the Pindus Mountains in northern Greece. Other regions with a forecast of surplus include Czech Republic, pockets in Slovakia and eastern Hungary, parts of the Alps in Italy and Switzerland, central Italy, and along Spain’s northern coast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through June indicates that surpluses will shrink and downgrade considerably, though pockets will persist in the U.K., Czech Republic, the Alps, Romania, Bulgaria, southern Serbia, northern Greece, and central Italy. In Russia, intense surpluses will persist in Murmansk and moderate surpluses in the Desna River Watershed. Deficits will remain exceptional in Estonia and Latvia, intensify in Lithuania and western Belarus, and increase in southern Sweden. Elsewhere in Europe, deficits will persist in Belgium, Bologna, and Macedonia; increase in Germany, Poland, France, and western Hungary; and emerge in Denmark and pockets in the western Iberian Peninsula.

From July through September, surpluses will continue to shrink, persisting primarily in Murmansk, pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia, East Anglia, southern Romania, eastern Bulgaria, and the Pindus Mountains in Greece and Albania. Deficits will downgrade in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Belarus, but will continue to be intense in Estonia and Latvia. Deficits in southern Sweden and southern Norway will increase. Moderate deficits are forecast for Germany, Denmark, Belgium, France, Bologna, Macedonia, and pockets in southwestern Spain.

The forecast for the remaining months – October through December – indicates nearly normal water conditions overall with surpluses in Murmansk and some pockets of deficit, primarily moderate, in the Baltics and Sweden.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Water rationing continues in Crimea, the Russian-annexed territory of Ukraine. Some 85 percent of the peninsula’s water had been flowing from the Dnieper River into the North Crimean Canal until Ukraine instituted a blockade to protest the occupation. The local reservoir is nearly empty and the acreage of cultivated cropland has shrunk. Russia recently began investing money to help alleviate the situation, but is currently pursuing legal measures against Ukraine.

The Hérault region on the Mediterranean in southern France is on drought alert with water tables indicating significant decline. Rainfall in the city of Montpellier is just 37 percent of normal.

France’s Loire-Atlantique prefecture on the Breton coast has also experienced rainfall deficits, prompting authorities to initiate water conservation measures including restrictions on water use for irrigation, swimming pools, and car-washing. Nationwide, precipitation totals for March showed a 53 percent deficit, and only three days of rain were recorded between 20 March and 20 April.

One town in England’s Berkshire region is taking a cue from China’s “sponge cities” with plans to create permeable road surfaces as flood defense. The initiative is part of a £150 million (USD $208 million) program funded by the federal government’s Flood and Coastal Resilience Innovation Program.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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