Europe: Water deficits will increase in C. Europe

24 May 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through January 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits in Estonia and Latvia with deficits of lesser intensity in Lithuania and into western Belarus. Across the Baltic Sea, intense deficits will be widespread in central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed, reaching across the border into Norway. Generally moderate deficits are forecast in pockets of southern Sweden and Norway. Finnish Lapland can expect exceptional deficits.

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Widespread surpluses reaching extreme to exceptional intensity are forecast in Murmansk, Russia, and northern Norway. Surpluses are also expected in pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia and in Western European Russia in the Upper Volga River Watershed, the Upper Desna River Watershed (a tributary of the Dnieper), and the Don River Watershed where anomalies will be exceptional. Deficits are forecast in the Upper Mezen River region of northern Russia.

Ireland and the United Kingdom can expect pockets of surplus. Deficits are forecast for Belgium, north central and southern Germany, around Lake Balaton in western Hungary, southern Austria, and Slovenia. Widespread deficits are forecast for France leading into Spain past Barcelona, and deficits are also forecast for much of northern Italy, Sardinia, and Corsica. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Upper Schelte River and northern Ardennes regions of Belgium, surrounding Bologna, and pockets in Sardinia.

Surpluses are forecast for many regions in the Balkans with exceptional anomalies in southern Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and the Pindus Mountains in northern Greece. Other regions with a forecast of surplus include Czech Republic, central Italy, and a pocket near Spain’s southeastern coast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through July indicates that surpluses will decrease in Eastern Europe and the Balkans and, while shrinking in Western European Russia will remain widespread. Pockets of surplus will persist around the Gulf of Bothnia and in Romania, Bulgaria, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and northern Greece into Albania. A few pockets will also persist in the U.K., particularly East Anglia and the Scottish Highlands, and in central Italy. Deficits will remain exceptional in Estonia and Latvia, intensify in Lithuania and western Belarus, and increase in southern Sweden and southern Norway. Deficits will also increase in many areas of Central Europe including Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria, western Hungary, and northern Italy. Anomalies will be severe and widespread in France, moderating as they reach across the border into Spain. Deficits will emerge from Seville to Cordoba and on many Mediterranean islands. Moderate deficits will emerge in Bosnia and Herzegovina and mild deficits in nearby nations.

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From August through October, anomalies will shrink and downgrade. Surpluses are forecast for Murmansk, pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia, the Upper Volga and Don River Watersheds, East Anglia, and pockets in the Balkans including southern Romania, eastern Bulgaria, and the Pindus Mountains in Greece. Deficits will downgrade in the Baltics and southern Sweden, shrink in southern Norway, and shrink but remain intense in Finnish Lapland. Deficits will remain widespread in France but will moderate. Moderate deficits are also forecast for Germany, Belgium, and a few pockets in northern Italy.

The forecast for the remaining months – November 2021 through January 2022 – indicates nearly normal water conditions overall with deficits in Finnish Lapland and surpluses in a few regions including Murmansk, pockets in the Nordic nations, the Don River Watershed in Russia, and Switzerland.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Several regions of Sweden have banned irrigation to address current or impending groundwater shortages. Activities such as filling pools, washing cars, and watering lawns are prohibited from 15 April through 5 June in Vårgårda municipality; from 1 May in Gotland, with possible extensions planned in June; and from 10 May in Karlskrona.

There is growing concern among farmers in France regarding the fate of wheat growth with limited rainfall. In Tours, a mere 21 millimeters of rain (less than an inch) fell in two months, about one-fifth of the average. And grazed areas are not experiencing regrowth, leaving little fodder for animals.

Serious water shortages in Russian-annexed Crimea have prompted Moscow to announce that it plans to drill for fresh water under the Sea of Azov. Since the occupation, Ukraine has blocked waterflow into the peninsula. Experts say fresh water does exist under the Azov but is likely not potable due to high mineral concentrations, leading to speculation that Moscow’s announcement is more political posturing than problem-solving.

In Ukraine’s Donbas region (Donetsk Basin), the war-torn area in the east, abandoned mine shafts pose a potential threat to water resources. Without proper closure and pumping procedures, water seeping into the neglected coal mines leaches toxic metals and other pollutants into rivers and wells, threatening drinking water and rendering cropland unproductive. Any excessive precipitation could exacerbate the situation.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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