Africa: Water deficits in the Horn will shrink

24 May 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through January 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits across North Africa along with some areas of transitional conditions (pink/purple). Surpluses are expected in pockets across the Sahel, particularly in Chad.

In the Horn of Africa, deficits are forecast in Somaliland and southeastern Somalia, and the Nugaal region of northern Somalia will see transitional conditions. Some surpluses are expected in northern Ethiopia and deficits in the central south.

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In West Africa, moderate deficits are forecast for Guinea and Sierra Leone. Around the Gulf of Guinea extreme deficits are predicted for southwestern Cameroon and exceptional deficits for Equatorial Guinea and southern Gabon. In the heart of the continent, deficits are expected in a pocket of Central African Republic, in the northern half of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), near the southern half of Lake Tanganyika, and spanning DRC’s border with Angola. Surpluses are forecast around Kinshasa. Angola can expect deficits throughout nearly all the country, moderate overall but with some severe pockets.

In East Africa, severe to extreme surpluses are forecast for central Tanzania and the southeast, but anomalies will be exceptional in a pocket west of Lake Victoria in the north. Surpluses are also forecast for central Malawi.

Widespread surpluses are forecast in a broad belt across Namibia, nearly all of Botswana, and reaching south into South Africa and east through Zimbabwe’s southern border into southern Mozambique. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in eastern Namibia and southern Botswana, while exceptional deficits are forecast for southwestern Namibia. Severe surpluses will surround the Gariep Dam in South Africa.

In Mozambique, deficits are forecast in the east at the narrowest point near the Mozambique Channel and across the Channel in the Lower Tsiribihina River region in Madagascar. Intense deficits are expected in Madagascar’s northernmost tip and a few pockets of surpluses in the northeast and southwest.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through July indicates that deficits will increase across North Africa as exceptional deficits emerge from Egypt into southeastern Libya and northern Sudan. Surpluses will persist in the Sahel, shrinking in the east while re-emerging in the west. Deficits around the Gulf of Guinea, in the heart of the continent, and in the Horn of Africa will shrink and downgrade. However, deficits are forecast for Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, southern Gabon, northern DRC, Uganda, Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and Somalia. Anomalies will be severe in several regions, notably Uganda.

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Areas with a forecast of surplus include central and southeastern Tanzania into Mozambique, south-central DRC, surrounding Kinshasa and Brazzaville, and the Lucala River Watershed in northern Angola. Prior areas of exceptional deficit in northern Angola will normalize as will conditions in southwestern Namibia. Surpluses will remain widespread in a belt across Namibia and throughout much of Botswana, though transitions (pink/purple) will begin in the northeast. Surpluses are also forecast to persist in Mozambique’s southernmost extent. Deficits will retreat from South Africa’s western provinces but increase somewhat east of Johannesburg and in Lesotho.

From August through October, deficits will shrink in the southern Sahara and downgrade considerably in Egypt and neighboring nations. Conditions across the Sahel will become more normal with some lingering pockets of moderate surplus. Deficits will shrink coast-to-coast from the Gulf of Guinea through the Horn of Africa. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and a large pocket in the Congo Basin in DRC. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in East Africa and in Namibia and Botswana, with many areas in transition. Deficits will nearly disappear in South Africa and will moderate in Lesotho.

The forecast for the final quarter – November 2021 through January 2022 – indicates generally mild to moderate deficits in pockets of North Africa though exceptional deficits will emerge in western Mauritania. Areas with a forecast of surplus include Namibia, Botswana, southern Sudan, South Sudan, and Uganda.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The past few years of drought in southern Madagascar have left 1.35 million people in need of food assistance says the World Food Programme in its appeal for US $74 million. The prolonged drought forced many families to consume their seed stock last fall, leaving little for the planting season and now some families are consuming locusts and leaves to survive.

In Angola and Namibia, however, swarms of locusts are creating food insecurity by stripping what remains of drought-damaged crops and by decimating grazing land. This is the third wave of locusts in the region since December 2020 and the Namibian government has spent over US $2 million to contain them though much more is needed.

Drought is reducing dam levels in South Africa’s Eastern Cape metro region of Nelson Mandela Bay, home to nearly 1.3 million people, and residents are being urged to conserve water. Trees are growing in the dried-up bed of the Impofu Dam, now at just 15 percent of capacity, and buoys that once bobbed in the water sway like balloons. The Kouga Dam is at 4.5 percent capacity, the lowest since its construction over 50 years ago. The Bay municipality council recently approved construction of a desalination plant with a capacity of 15,000 m3 per day. While renewing a grant for 183 million rand (US $12.7 million) to improve the water situation, the federal government is skeptical of the desal plant, citing other facilities that have fallen into disrepair.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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