Middle East: Water deficits will increase in Turkey

Middle East: Water deficits will increase in Turkey

21 May 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending January 2022 indicates widespread, intense water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula and in central and southern Iran. Areas with a forecast of exceptional deficit include Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and central and southeastern Saudi Arabia. In Iran, deficits will be exceptional in Fars, Yazd, and South Khorasan Provinces, and along the Strait of Hormuz.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in many regions of Turkey, throughout Cyprus, and in the Levant. Exceptional surpluses and transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast for north-central Syria, but intense deficits are expected around Aleppo. In Iraq, deficits are forecast for much of the nation, particularly west of the Tigris River. Anomalies will be exceptional near the Syrian border and around Basra in the south. Surpluses and transitional conditions are forecast near Mosul.

Surpluses are expected on Iran’s central Caspian Coast reaching inland to Tehran with transitional conditions near Turkmenistan. Surpluses are also forecast near Lake Urmia, in Lorestan Province, and in a pocket on the northeastern end of the Persian Gulf.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through July indicates that deficits will increase as surpluses shrink, though the extent of exceptional deficit will diminish considerably. Deficits of varying intensity will increase throughout much of Turkey and will include pockets of exceptional deficit. Deficits in the Levant will be primarily mild to moderate and transitional conditions are forecast in northern Syria. On the Arabian Peninsula, deficits will cover much of Saudi Arabia with anomalies reaching exceptional intensity in Riyadh Province. Transitional conditions are expected from southern Saudi Arabia through central Yemen and generally moderate deficits in Oman. In Iran, surpluses will linger along the central Caspian Coast and a few pockets in the west, but deficits will cover much of the remaining area of the county. Anomalies will be severe in Fars Province in the south with some small pockets of even greater intensity.

From August through October, surpluses will nearly disappear as transitions occur. On the Arabian Peninsula, deficits will intensify in central Saudi Arabia and along the northern Persian Gulf, becoming exceptional. Deficits in the Levant will be mild to moderate overall. In Turkey, deficits will shrink and downgrade but anomalies ranging from severe to exceptional will persist in a pocket of the southwest. Moderate deficits are forecast in central Iran, but anomalies of greater intensity are expected in pockets throughout the northeastern provinces and in the south near the Persian Gulf. Areas of former surplus will begin to transition.

In the final quarter – November 2021 through January 2022 – some pockets of deficit are forecast in south-central and northwestern Saudi Arabia and central Turkey.  A few pockets of surpluses will re-emerge, including in central Syria and on the central Saudi-Yemen border.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought is taking a toll on Jordan’s farmers. The region’s past rainy season simply didn’t live up to its name - precipitation from October 2020 through April 2021 was 40 percent below normal according to an official with the water ministry. Market gardens in the fertile land south of the nation’s capital, Amman, that would ordinarily be filled with tomatoes, beans, peppers, eggplants, zucchini, and cabbage are withering. Some farmers have torched the parched fields and individual losses have reached $43,000. Dams that supply drinking water are at critical levels. Climate change, increased population, and refugees have further strained water availability.

Fears are mounting that the Kurdistan Region of Iraq will see significant crop losses this season due to drought. Rice production, for which the area’s Harir and Batas Plain is known, is especially vulnerable, with one local expert predicting a 30 to 35 percent decrease,

Drone technology is being tested in the United Arab Emirates to elicit precipitation. To jolt the clouds into making rain, drones deliver an electric charge that induces droplets to converge and deliver.

Seasonal rains in western Yemen produced flooding that left 13 dead in early May and blocked a major north-south route to the capital, Sanaa. In Hadhramaut Province further east, four deaths were reported in Tarim due to flash flooding that affected thousands and damaged many buildings and homes.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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