South Asia: Intense water deficits in India’s Far Northeast

20 May 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through January 2022 indicates moderate to exceptional water deficits in India’s Far Northeast. Deficits of lesser intensity are expected in Punjab and Haryana in the north and in northwestern Rajasthan. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in Jammu and Kashmir and widespread surpluses of varying intensity in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh.

A few pockets of moderate surplus are expected in Sri Lanka’s coastal corners and surpluses will trace the Gandaki River through central Nepal and into India. In Bhutan, however, deficits are forecast in the east, and moderate deficits will follow the Jamuna River (lower Brahmaputra) in Bangladesh.

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Intense surpluses are expected in Pakistan’s northern provinces; transitional conditions and surpluses in the center of the nation; and moderate to exceptional deficits in southwestern Baluchistan Province. In Afghanistan, deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast for the Lower Helmand River region of the south; moderate to severe deficits on either side of Mazar-e Sharif in the north; and surpluses in the west between the Helmand and Harirud Rivers.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through July indicates that near-normal conditions will return to the breadth of central India as deficits retreat. However, deficits will increase in India’s Far Northeast, reaching into Bhutan, and will include extreme to exceptional anomalies in Assam. Water surpluses in India will retreat from the Western Ghats but persist in much of the Deccan Plateau, Andhra Pradesh, and south along Tamil Nadu’s east coast. Surpluses will also persist in Sri Lanka. Anomalies in India will be exceptional in pockets along the western edge of the Deccan Plateau. A band of mild to moderate surplus will re-emerge in Gujarat leading into Rajasthan, and surpluses will persist with intensity in Jammu and Kashmir.

South_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_202102-202201_3mo_twitter.png

Bangladesh will return to nearly normal conditions and water anomalies will retreat from Nepal, though surpluses will persist on the Gandaki River and emerge on the river’s path into India. In Pakistan, surpluses will persist in the north, shrinking somewhat, and will re-emerge in the center of the country west of the Indus River trailing southeast to Karachi on the coast. Conditions will normalize east of the Indus and deficits in the southwest will moderate. Severe surpluses will continue in Afghanistan between the Helmand and Harirud Rivers and exceptional deficits in the Lower Harirud will disappear.

From August through October, anomalies downgrade leaving generally moderate surpluses in Maharashtra, pockets of Karnataka, and southern Andhra Pradesh, and surpluses of greater intensity in Jammu and Kashmir. A pocket of moderate deficit will linger in Assam. Surpluses are forecast on the Gandaki River from Nepal into India and a few coastal regions of Sri Lanka. In Pakistan, surpluses will remain fairly intense in the north and severe surpluses will emerge on the Indus River. Surpluses and transitional conditions are expected west of the Indus leading to the southeast. Deficits in the southwest will be mild overall. Conditions in Afghanistan will be similar to the forecast for the prior three months though surpluses will shrink and a pocket of exceptional deficit will emerge in the southeast.

The forecast for the final months – November 2021 through January 2022 – indicates persistent surpluses in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. Surpluses are also forecast in Jammu and Kashmir, pockets of central and northern Pakistan, and western Afghanistan. Moderate deficits will increase in India’s Far Northeast and will emerge in northern Rajasthan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Though COVID-19 deaths have eclipsed weather-related impacts in India, several regions of the country have experienced recent crop and infrastructure losses due to drought and flooding.

Nearly one-third of cultivated land in the northern Indian state of Himachal Pradesh has suffered significant productivity loss due to deficient winter snowfall combined with low rainfall in the first quarter of the year. Precipitation in the region has fallen well below normal with a 58 percent shortfall in January, 81 percent in February, and 62 percent in March, putting drinking water at risk.

Drought-parched Assam in India’s Far Northeast is likely to see a 20 to 25 percent drop in tea production for April and May, with even higher losses predicted for the January through May period.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae roared into the western Indian state of Gujarat in mid-May, claiming at least 50 lives there, in nearby states, and deaths at sea. Coastal areas evacuated 200,000 people and the storm surge, possibly as high as 10 feet (3 meters), turned roads into rivers and the wind toppled trees and power lines. Cyclones are not that common in the Arabian Sea but Tauktae tied the Gujarat record set by a 1999 event.

Heavy rainfall triggered flooding in 17 provinces of Afghanistan with 50 deaths reported. Nearly half the deaths occurred in Herat Province in the west. In the northern province of Takhar, six people died in flooding that blocked roads and destroyed homes and crops.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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