East Asia: Water deficits in SE China will downgrade

19 May 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through January 2022 indicates widespread water surpluses in Northeast China with exceptional anomalies from northwest Jilin into Heilongjiang in the Songhua River Watershed. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in large pockets of the Yellow (Huang He) River Watershed and moderate surpluses in eastern Qinghai. Conditions will be relatively normal in the Yangtze Watershed.

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In Southeast China, moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Guangdong, Fujian, and Jiangxi but deficits in Taiwan will reach exceptional intensity. Deficits will also be intense from western Yunnan into eastern Tibet (Xizang) and in western Sichuan. Mixed conditions are forecast for western Tibet including exceptional surpluses. In northwestern China, intense deficits along with transitional conditions (pink/purple) are expected in western Inner Mongolia, and deficits will form a wide band leading into Xinjiang Uygur and through the Taklimakan Desert. Deficits are also forecast for the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai.

In Mongolia, moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast in the south-central region, primarily the western Gobi Desert, and in the northern Altay Mountains and lakes region in the nation’s northwest. Surpluses are forecast nearby in the Ider River region of the northwest and in a pocket of the northeast in the Upper Kherlen River region. Normal conditions are forecast for the Korean Peninsula. In Japan, a few pockets of moderate surplus are expected near Nagano.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through July indicates that surpluses of varying intensity will persist in the Yellow River Watershed but will shrink and downgrade considerably in the Yangtze. Surpluses will persist in Northeast China, and while shrinking and downgrading overall will remain exceptional in northwestern Jilin and in Heilongjiang.

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Deficits in Southeast China will shrink and downgrade with moderate deficits lingering in Fujian, Guangdong, and southern Jiangxi, though deficits may be severe on the Jiulong River in Fujian. Deficits will moderate in Taiwan as well, but an exceptional pocket will persist in the central east.

In the south, surpluses will retreat from Guangdong’s Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan and will moderate in Guangxi. Surpluses will emerge in eastern Yunnan while intense deficits persist in the province’s northwest region and emerge in eastern Tibet. Intense surpluses are forecast for western Tibet.

In northwestern China, deficits of varying intensity are expected from western Inner Mongolia into the Taklimakan Desert in Xinjiang, but surpluses are forecast near the region’s capital city of Ürümqi.

Moderate deficits will emerge in south-central Mongolia and in the northwest. Surpluses are expected in the northwest between Khyargas Lake and Khovsgol Lake, and in the northeast in the Upper Kherlen River region. Near-normal conditions are expected on the Korean Peninsula and some generally mild surpluses in central Japan.

From August through October, anomalies will shrink and downgrade considerably overall. Surpluses in Northeast China will shrink and moderate overall but exceptional anomalies will persist in northwestern Jilin and nearby regions, and widespread surpluses will persist in northern Inner Mongolia. Surpluses will shrink in the Yellow River Watershed leaving a few lingering pockets. Moderate surpluses will persist in eastern Qinghai and intense surpluses in western Tibet. Conditions in southeastern China will normalize from former deficit, and moderate surpluses will emerge in northern Taiwan. Yunnan and eastern Tibet will also transition to normalcy from deficit, but deficits will emerge in eastern Sichuan and southern Guizhou. Western Tibet will continue to see surpluses and deficits will persist in western Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. Anomalies in Mongolia, Korea, and Japan will be primarily mild.

The forecast for the final three months – November 2021 through January 2022 – indicates the emergence of widespread deficits south of the Yangtze River and in North Korea. Deficits are also forecast for northwestern China while surpluses will persist in the northeast from northern Inner Mongolia to the Russian border. Some deficits will skirt Honshu’s southeastern coast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought continues to affect Taiwan and its semiconductor manufacturers as hydropower production falls short of the island’s power needs. A heatwave spiked demand in May after which phased black-outs were initiated for the second time in a week. The outages also affected 660,000 homes.

After an 18-month dry spell, the water level in Sun Moon Lake, a popular tourist spot in central Taiwan, has dropped 12 meters, exposing a cracked lakebed full of garbage, including a cell phone retrieved in working conditions after a year. Agricultural losses on the island now exceed 460 million yuan (~ USD $71.5 million).

China has increased its financial subsidies for water conservation projects this year, bringing the total to 57.4 billion yuan (USD$8.87 billion). The money is targeted towards reservoir construction and improvement, drought and flood prevention, and water use efficiency.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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