Canada: Severe water deficits forecast for southern MB

26 May 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through January 2022 indicates vast areas of water deficit in the eastern half of the nation. Areas of exceptional deficit include southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, Nova Scotia’s southern tip, northeastern Quebec into western Labrador and along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and spanning the northern Quebec/Ontario border.

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Deficits of varying intensity are expected in Southern Ontario reaching east through Ottawa, Montreal, and Québec City. Likewise, deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario’s Kenora District though surpluses are forecast on Hudson Bay. In Manitoba, deficits are expected in the south that will be extreme to exceptional from Winnipeg and following the Assiniboine River west of the city. Exceptional deficits are also forecast in a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg and on Hudson Bay, with surpluses elsewhere in the north reaching west into Saskatchewan.

Moderate deficits are forecast in Saskatchewan’s southeastern corner and deficits are also expected in a belt across the center of the province, while the northwest can expect severe to exceptional surplus leading north well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west into Alberta. Surpluses are expected in a pocket east of Calgary, Alberta, and some deficits in the south. Deficits will be intense in central Alberta in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed and in the province’s northwest corner spanning the border with British Columbia.

British Columbia’s Vancouver Island will see deficits as will the province’s southeastern corner. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in much of the Fraser River Watershed though intense deficits are forecast near Prince George in the north. Deficits will also be intense near British Columbia’s northern border, expanding as they reach well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through July indicates that, in Quebec and regions east, deficits will increase as surpluses retreat. Many vast regions of exceptional deficit will persist in Quebec, and deficits in the Ungava Peninsula will become exceptional while moderate surpluses emerge to the south on Hudson Bay. Exceptional deficits will remain widespread southwest of Lake Mistassini and in a broad column along the Quebec-Ontario border. Deficits will persist in much of Ontario except in the northeast along Hudson Bay where surpluses will increase.

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In Manitoba, severe deficits are forecast in the south, exceptional deficits across the center of the province and on Hudson Bay, and surpluses elsewhere in the north. Deficits in Saskatchewan’s southern half will shrink and moderate; surpluses in the northeast will increase and intensify. Alberta can expect some pockets of deficit in the south, exceptional deficits in the Middle Athabasca River Watershed and surpluses in the river’s upper basin, and exceptional deficits in the northwest. In British Columbia, surpluses will persist in much of the Fraser River watershed. Intense deficits are forecast on Vancouver Island, the province’s southeast corner, near Prince George, and along the northern border.

From August through October, surpluses will nearly disappear in the eastern half of the country and deficits will shrink, though vast regions of exceptional deficit will persist. Deficits will moderate in southern Manitoba, retreat from southern Saskatchewan, and downgrade somewhat in Alberta. In British Columbia, surpluses in the south will shrink and deficits will downgrade.

The forecast for the final months – November 2021 through January 2022 – indicates that deficits will continue to shrink in the eastern half of the nation. Surpluses will retreat from northern Manitoba and deficits will retreat from southern British Columbia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In early May, the water level in Lake Minnewasta, the source of drinking water for the southern Manitoba city of Morden, was at its lowest level in nearly 40 years. To address drought conditions, the city aims to reduce peak water usage by 25 percent through voluntary measures.

By mid-May wildfires were burning in the center of the province near Lake Winnipeg as temperatures reached 30 to 33 degrees C (86 to 91 degrees F). Smoke forced the closure of several major highways. Campfires have been banned in park facilities and hiking and biking trails closed due to fire threat.

Water experts In southern Saskatchewan say that soil moisture is about 40 percent of normal. Farmers note that seeded crops are slow to germinate, and ranchers are already accessing emergency feed stocks as pastures wither.

The Northwest Territories community of Jean Marie River flooded after the Mackenzie River burst its banks, damaging 22 of the 26 homes in the village and depositing huge chunks of ice. The rising water upended fuel tanks, polluting the area with diesel and damaging the local power plant, forcing a power shutdown. Half of the local airfield was submerged, limiting travel options.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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