Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook June 2021

3 June 2021

OVERVIEW
Exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures are indicated in the June 2021 Outlook for several regions of the world, notably much of the vast expanse of Brazil. Conditions will be wetter than normal in the U.S. Gulf Coast region and Lower Mississippi Watershed.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Widespread precipitation surpluses are expected in the southern United States from Texas through the Lower Mississippi River region and Gulf Coast into Georgia. Surpluses will also reach as far north as Kentucky through the Lower Ohio River Basin. Conditions will be moderately wetter than normal overall but Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi will see extreme or even exceptional surpluses. In the U.S. West, Nevada and Northern California will be moderately drier than normal.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on… — Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Precipitation should be relatively normal in Canada with some moderate surpluses in northern British Columbia reaching inland from the coastal city of Prince Rupert. Some pockets of moderate precipitation deficit are expected on the nation’s east coast in the Maritimes.

Mexico’s northern state of Coahuila will be wetter than normal with severe to extreme surpluses, moderating as they trail into neighboring states to the south. Precipitation deficits, primarily moderate, are expected around the southern Gulf Coast states into pockets of Central America. Central Hispaniola will also be moderately drier than normal.

In South America, precipitation deficits will be severe near Caracas, Venezuela and moderate in the northern reaches of the Orinoco River Watershed. Surpluses are forecast for the Orinoco Delta and nearby in northern Guyana. Brazil will be somewhat drier than normal in pockets from Rondônia into western Pará, from eastern Pará into southern Piauí, and in eastern states from Rio Grande do Norte past Bahia. Deficits will be extreme south of the city of Itaituba in western Pará. Moderate deficits are expected in the northern Pampas of Argentina, pockets in the nation’s northeastern provinces, and in Chile’s Atacama Region. Deficits elsewhere include a path from eastern Ecuador leading south into Peru, and some pockets in the central Cordillera Occidental Mountains of Peru.

Surpluses are forecast through the Cordillera Central Mountains in the Colombian Andes as well as in the Cordillera Centrals in the Peruvian Andes where surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in Huánuco Region. Moderate surpluses are forecast spanning Peru’s border with Brazil; around Cusco in southeastern Peru leading well into Bolivia; and in southern Minas Gerais State in Brazil.

Precipitation will be relatively normal in much of Europe. However, severe to extreme surpluses are forecast from eastern Ukraine through southern Russia to the Caspian Sea. Eastern Romania and southern Moldova can expect moderate surpluses. Moderate surpluses are also forecast in a pocket north of Madrid, Spain. Moderate deficits are expected in the East of England and in western Denmark.

Across the central girth of Africa, conditions will be much drier than normal from northern Cameroon through Ethiopia with deficits reaching extreme and exceptional intensity in many areas including a broad belt south of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Intense precipitation deficits are also forecast for northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and southwestern Kenya. Tanzania, eastern Zambia, Malawi, and northern Mozambique will see surpluses, of particular intensity in central Tanzania. Surpluses are also forecast on Africa’s opposite coast in Gabon and southern Republic of the Congo, which will be extreme spanning the shared border. Primarily moderate surpluses are forecast in eastern South Africa, Swaziland, and Lesotho, but surpluses may be somewhat more intense east of Pretoria. Along the Mediterranean, some areas of moderate surplus are forecast for northern Tunisia and northernmost Algeria.

In the Middle East, moderately drier than normal conditions are predicted for eastern Turkey, northwestern Iran into Azerbaijan, and pockets of northeastern Iran. A few pockets of surplus are expected in Iraq near Kirkuk and in the southeast around the Gharraf Canal, as well as small, isolated pockets in Syria and Iran. Southwestern Saudi Arabia will see mixed conditions.

Russia can expect generally normal precipitation in its Asian extent with some areas of moderate deficit in the southern Urals, the Lower Irtysh River region as it joins the Ob, and the Taymur River region west of Central Siberia. In Central Asia, moderate deficits are also forecast for Turkmenistan and southern Kyrgyzstan, and moderate surpluses in eastern Kazakhstan.

In South Asia, India can expect to be wetter than normal in Kerala, Karnataka, much of coastal and northern Maharashtra, and from southern Madhya Pradesh into Odisha. Surpluses are also expected in India’s far northern regions but deficits are forecast in the Far Northeast and into Bhutan where anomalies will be exceptional. Moderate surpluses are forecast for the central bulk of Pakistan. Mixed conditions are expected in Afghanistan with primarily deficits in the north and pockets of surplus in the south. Western Sri Lanka will see intense surpluses.

In East Asia, Japan and Korea can expect nearly normal precipitation. Northwestern Yunnan, China will be drier than normal as will eastern and southern Tibet (Xizang). Northern Tibet will see moderately wetter conditions which will reach into Qinghai, and moderate surpluses are also forecast in Gansu and Ningxia in north-central China.

Myanmar will be much drier than normal in the north and moderately drier in the west. In Southeast Asia, Peninsular regions of Myanmar and Thailand will see precipitation surpluses, while Peninsular Malaysia can expect deficits. Intense deficits are forecast west of Tonlé Sap, Cambodia, moderate deficits in eastern Vietnam and the Lower Mekong. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in Sumatra’s northern half, Borneo, Sulawesi, southern New Guinea and the Bird’s Head Peninsula, and Mindanao, Philippines. Surpluses are expected in the central Philippines.

Australia’s northwest will be much wetter than normal and will include exceptional surpluses along the coast south of Broome reaching well inland, moderating in Northern Territory past Alice Springs. Surpluses are expected in New Zealand from Christchurch to Wellington.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
In South America, the varying shades of red and orange covering much of Brazil indicate a forecast of warmer than normal temperatures throughout much of the nation and exceptionally hotter conditions in the vast expanse of the southern Amazon Basin. Likewise, Brazil’s northeast region can expect exceptionally hotter temperatures as can the states of Minas Gerais and Saõ Paulo in the southeast. Warm anomalies ranging from severe to exceptional are forecast in the Guianas and southern Venezuela, though less intense conditions are expected in northwestern Venezuela. Temperatures will also be warmer than normal throughout much of Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru with exceptionally hotter conditions tracing a path through the Andes. The forecast for southwestern Bolivia and northern Chile into Argentina indicates warmer than normal temperatures.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Most regions of Central America and the Caribbean can expect to be warmer than normal. Anomalies will vary in intensity from moderate in the Bahamas to exceptional at the shared borders of Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Like neighboring Guatemala, Mexico’s southern state of Chiapas will see severe warm anomalies overall, moderating as they reach into the Yucatán. On Mexico’s central Pacific Coast, temperatures will be much warmer than normal, but moderate inland. Moderately warmer conditions are also forecast for large blocks in the northern states of Coahuila, Durango, Chihuahua, Sonora, and the Baja Peninsula. And, moderate warm anomalies will skirt the Gulf Coast.

In the United States, nearly normal temperatures are expected in the Central and Southern Plains States and much of the Deep South, but warmer than normal conditions are forecast for the West, Southwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Anomalies will be moderate overall in the Southwest and West but severe in large blocks surrounding Tucson, Reno, and in the Eel River Watershed of northwestern California, and will reach exceptional intensity in Death Valley National Park in the northern Mojave Desert. In the Great Lakes Region, exceptionally hotter temperatures are expected in northern Michigan; severe to extreme anomalies in Wisconsin; and moderately warmer conditions in Minnesota, Indiana, and Ohio. Intensely warmer temperatures are forecast in coastal regions of the Mid-Atlantic, downgrading inland. And in the U.S. Northeast, Maine and coastal areas to the south will be exceptionally hotter with anomalies of lesser intensity throughout the remaining region. Southern Florida can expect moderately warmer temperatures, while a small pocket in south-central Louisiana will be somewhat cooler than the norm. Temperatures will be moderately warmer along Alaska’s north coast near Barrow, and Hawaii can expect severe warm anomalies.

The eastern half of Canada will be blanketed in warmer than normal temperatures. Conditions will be extremely hotter in much of Southern Ontario including Toronto, and in regions north of Lake Huron’s Georgian Bay and North Channel. Extremely warmer temps are also expected in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Quebec’s Gaspé Peninsula and from the Manicouagan Reservoir reaching along the Gulf of St. Lawrence. In the Prairie Provinces, moderately warmer conditions are forecast for eastern Manitoba, the Churchill River Watershed through Saskatchewan, and the Middle Athabasca and the Middle and Upper Peace River regions of Alberta. Northeastern British Columbia will see moderate to severe warm anomalies reaching into Yukon Territory, and widespread moderate warm anomalies are forecast for Nunavut.

Western Europe will be moderately warmer than normal as will the Nordic nations, though southern Norway could see extreme anomalies. Western Romania will be moderately warmer as will Sardinia, and moderately cooler conditions are forecast in southern Serbia, a few pockets in the northern Apennine Mountains of Italy, and pockets of central and eastern Greece.

In the Middle East, cooler than normal temperatures will trace Turkey’s Black Sea Coast and coastal Georgia, though far eastern Turkey will be warmer than normal. Exceptionally hotter than normal conditions will dominate much of Iran. Basrah Governate in southern Iraq will be extremely warmer than normal, but a moderately cooler pocket is expected west of Kirkuk in the north. On the Arabian Peninsula, warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected in many areas, including exceptional anomalies in northern Oman and extreme to exceptional anomalies in southern Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

Most of northern Africa will be warmer than normal with exceptionally hotter conditions in vast areas of the Sahara and Sahel, and intense anomalies reaching east through Eritrea and the Ethiopian Highlands. Exceptionally warmer conditions will also dominate Atlantic nations from Senegal, around the Gulf of Guinea, and through Angola’s northwestern coast. These exceptional conditions will extend inland into Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo, and northern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Southern and eastern Angola will be warmer than normal as will northwestern Namibia. Zambia is expected to be moderately warmer, and moderate warm anomalies are also forecast for south-central Zimbabwe, the Ligonha River Watershed of northern Mozambique, and northeastern and southwestern South Africa. Madagascar will be warmer than normal with intensely warmer conditions in the northeast.

In Central Asia, temperatures will be exceptionally hotter in Turkmenistan, and much warmer than normal in Uzbekistan. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are expected across the border in southern and western Kazakhstan and also in Tajikistan. Kyrgyzstan will be moderately cooler than normal in the north and moderately warmer in the south. Russia will see warmer than normal conditions from the Central Siberian Plateau through the Far East, including exceptional anomalies along the coast near the Laptev Strait.

The Ganges Plain in India will be moderately cooler than normal, but India’s Far Northeast can expect exceptionally hotter temperatures. Elsewhere in South Asia, intense warm anomalies are forecast for eastern Bangladesh and eastern Bhutan. Pakistan will be moderately warmer in the far north and in the west. Central Afghanistan will see normal temperatures but warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast throughout the remainder of the country and will be exceptional in the west and surrounding Mazar-e Sharif in the north.

Many regions in East Asia will see temperatures above the norm including exceptionally hotter conditions in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan in China and southern Taiwan. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected elsewhere in south and southeast China; the North China Plain; from Inner Mongolia through Qinghai; Xinjiang; southern and eastern Tibet (Xizang); and western Sichuan. South-central Mongolia will be moderately warmer than normal. Severe warm anomalies are forecast for South Korea and moderate anomalies in North Korea. Hokkaido, Japan and Honshu’s northern two-thirds will be moderately warmer overall, but severe anomalies are expected in the nation’s south.

In Southeast Asia, Myanmar will be exceptionally hotter than normal as will northwestern Thailand and northern Laos. Southern Thailand, southern Laos, and eastern Vietnam will be moderately warmer than normal but warm anomalies will be more intense in northern Vietnam. Intensely hotter temperatures are expected in Malaysia, Indonesia, and many large areas on New Guinea’s north coast, including the Bird’s Head Peninsula. Most of the Philippines will also be much warmer than normal.

Australia can expect moderately warmer conditions in its southwestern corner reaching from Perth; some large blocks of South Australia; southeastern New South Wales including Sydney; near Cairns in northern Queensland; surrounding Alice Springs in the center of the nation; and from Top End, Northern Territory into the Kimberley Plateau in Western Australia (WA) where anomalies will reach severe intensity. Moderate cool anomalies are forecast on WA’s northwest coast near Karratha. Tasmania will be moderately warmer than normal but anomalies will be severe on the south coast including Hobart. Severe warm anomalies are expected throughout nearly all of New Zealand.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released June 2, 2021 which includes forecasts for June 2021 through February 2022 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued May 25 through May 31, 2021.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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