ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List June 2021

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST JUNE 2021

15 June 2021

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in March 2021 and running through February 2022 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List June 15, 2021 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits in the West, Rockies, Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, and widespread surpluses fanning from the Gulf region in Louisiana. Deficits will be exceptional in Northern California, western Oregon, and the Utah Rockies.

Canada: The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits in the east, including many areas of exceptional deficit, as surpluses retreat. In the Prairie Provinces, deficits in the south will shrink and downgrade. Surpluses will persist in much of the Fraser River watershed in British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through August indicates water deficits in Baja and Chihuahua, Mexico, and along the southern Gulf Coast as surpluses there retreat. Surpluses will persist in southern Central America but retreat from northern nations as deficits emerge.

South America: The forecast through August indicates widespread intense water deficits in Brazil south of the Amazon while surpluses north of the river shrink. Exceptional deficits are also forecast along the Paraguay and Paraná Rivers. Deficits elsewhere include northeastern Colombia, central Peru, and Chile.

Europe: The forecast through August indicates water surpluses in the Balkans, U.K., and Western European Russia. Deficits will increase and intensify in France, becoming severe. Deficits are also forecast for Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Serbia, and several regions in northern Italy.

Africa: The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits in North Africa but diminished deficits in the Horn. Many other regions will experience deficits including Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Angola, and Zambia. Surpluses will persist in Tanzania.

Middle East: The forecast through August indicates that the extent of exceptional water deficit will shrink, but widespread deficits will persist and exceptional deficits will increase in Turkey. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the Levant, intense deficits in Fars and Kerman, Iran.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through August indicates that water deficits will emerge in Russia’s Pechora River Basin, increase from Trans-Volga past Tyumen, and shrink and moderate in western Kazakhstan. Surpluses will remain widespread in the Yenisei River Watershed.

South Asia: The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses will shrink in India but remain widespread from western Maharashtra through the south and Sri Lanka. Intense deficits will persist in India’s Far Northeast. Surpluses will retreat from Bangladesh but persist in many regions of Pakistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade considerably overall but will remain intense in the Lesser Sunda Islands and widespread in the central and southern Philippines. Intense deficits are forecast around Medan, Sumatra.

East Asia: The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses will shrink but remain widespread in Northeast China and the Yellow and Yangtze Basins. Deficits in Southeast China will shrink considerably but exceptional deficits will increase in Yunnan.

Australia & New Zealand:The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses in southeastern Australia will shrink, persisting between the Barwon and Macquarie Rivers. Deficits will increase in Tasmania, shrink in southern New Zealand but persist in the north, and moderate in New Caledonia.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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