Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook July 2021

2 July 2021

OVERVIEW
The July 2021 Outlook indicates intensely hotter than normal temperatures for the U.S. West as well as a number of other regions of the world. Conditions in British Columbia, Canada will be considerably drier. Exceptional precipitation surpluses are expected in the northeastern Amazon Basin.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Precipitation deficits are forecast for British Columbia, Canada, severe overall but even more intense in some areas including an exceptionally dry pocket on the central southern border leading into the U.S.

Bleeding into Washington State in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, deficits will also be severe overall but more intense on the Canadian border, moderating as they reach into western Montana and western Oregon. Precipitation surpluses are expected in Idaho’s Salmon River Mountains and parts of the Rockies in Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado. The Southwest can expect moderate to severe surpluses in central Arizona and in west-central New Mexico. Surpluses will extend in a broad belt from the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma into East Texas and through the Deep South and the Lower Ohio River Basin. Surpluses will be moderate overall but severe in southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. In the East, moderate surpluses are forecast from eastern Pennsylvania through northern New Jersey. Outside the contiguous U.S., northwest Alaska can expect moderate surpluses.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on… — Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In Mexico, moderate precipitation surpluses are forecast in the northwestern states of Sonora, Chihuahua, and Durango, and some pockets in Baja. In central Mexico, Querétaro will be moderately wetter than normal. Deficits are forecast along the central and southern Pacific Coast, in the south between the Gulfs of Mexico and Tehuantepec, and Gulf regions of the Yucatán Peninsula. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in Central America from Guatemala through Costa Rica, and in the Caribbean region in Haiti and eastern Cuba.

In South America, precipitation surpluses are forecast in the northeastern Amazon River Basin in Brazil. Anomalies will be exceptional in northern Pará. Surpluses will reach into the nearby Guianas but will be moderate. Venezuela will experience surpluses in the south and in the east where anomalies will be extreme in the Caroni River’s upper reaches. Intense deficits are forecast in a pocket of the north near Caracas. Peru and southern Brazil can expect moderate to severe deficits, while moderate deficits are expected in Bolivia and Paraguay. Deficits are also forecast for central Chile and northwestern and Patagonian Argentina, moderate overall but with severe pockets in Patagonia. The Southern Patagonia Icefields, however, will experience intense surpluses.

In Europe, deficits, generally moderate, are forecast in Scotland, pockets around the North Sea, and southern regions of the Nordic nations. Moderate to severe deficits will be widespread in western European Russia, severe around Moscow. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in southern Ukraine, the Balkans, and central and southern Italy.

Precipitation anomalies in Africa are expected to be mild overall. A pocket of severe deficit is forecast in the southern Ethiopian Highlands, and moderate deficits in Somaliland and pockets of southern Somalia. Moderate deficits are also expected on the continent’s west coast in Senegal. In the nations along the northern Gulf of Guinea, moderate surpluses are expected in pockets and will form a belt through southern Nigeria. Further south, some areas of moderate surplus are forecast in eastern Gabon; central Republic of the Congo; and a band in central Democratic Republic of the Congo, broadening along the eastern border to reach into Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi.

Precipitation will be relatively normal in much of the Middle East, though widespread, generally moderate surpluses are forecast for western and central Turkey and pockets of deficit in the east. A belt of extreme surplus is expected north of Kirkuk, Iraq, and a small pocket just north of Baghdad. A patchwork of precipitation surpluses and deficits is indicated for southern Saudi Arabia.

In Central Asia, northwestern Kazakhstan will see moderate deficits. Moderate surpluses are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and southeastern Kyrgyzstan. In Russia, moderate deficits are forecast in central Krasnoyarsk Krai in Siberia, and moderate surpluses in the Lower Lena and Olenek River region in the north near the Laptev Sea.

Looking at the nations in South Asia, moderate to severe surpluses are predicted for the Penner and Cauvery River regions in southern India and a moderate pocket in southern Tamil Nadu. Moderate precipitation deficits are forecast on the west cost in southern Maharashtra around Kolhapur, and also in the far north along with a small, severe pocket near Delhi. Assam in the Far Northeast will experience moderate deficits. Deficits reaching extreme intensity are forecast for Nepal’s eastern half becoming moderate as they reach into Bhutan. Northern Pakistan can expect moderate deficits while pocket of surplus are forecast for central Afghanistan and around Kabul.

In Southeast Asia and the Pacific, surpluses are expected in central Myanmar surrounding Mandalay, and in eastern Thailand, western Cambodia, and northern and central Vietnam. Moderate deficits are forecast in southern Myanmar, a pocket in northwestern Thailand, and eastern Cambodia. Surpluses are expected in many regions of Indonesia, East Timor, New Guinea, and the Philippines. Surpluses will be intense in the Lesser Sunda Islands.

In East Asia, moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast in Beijing, China and surrounding regions. In Hubei and Chongqing in the Yangtze River Watershed, surpluses will be moderate to severe, and similar precipitation is forecast for Yunnan Province in the south. Deficits are forecast in central Sichuan, southern Gansu, Ningxia, and southern Qinghai. Elsewhere, deficits are forecast for Mongolia’s northwest corner and moderate deficits in Kyushu, Japan.

Relatively normal precipitation is forecast for Australia and New Zealand with some moderate surpluses near Brisbane.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Temperatures will be much hotter than normal in a vast extent of the western United States, exceptionally hotter in a broad path from northern California and Nevada well past the Canadian border through eastern Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana. Western Arizona will also be exceptionally hotter.

On the opposite side of the country, the U.S. Northeast will be warmer as well. From southern Maine through eastern Connecticut anomalies will be exceptional, downgrading as they reach inland through Pennsylvania and south through Virginia. Much of Florida will be hotter than normal with extreme anomalies in much of Peninsular Florida.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

The Upper Midwest will be moderately warmer in North Dakota and through northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Likewise, southern Michigan will be moderately warmer but anomalies will be severe in the north. Some pockets of slightly cooler than normal conditions are forecast for Oklahoma and nearby states.

Much of Canada will see warmer than normal temperatures with primarily moderate anomalies in the east, and moderate to severe anomalies in Manitoba and Saskatchewan though the region around Lake Winnipeg will be exceptionally hotter. The western provinces will be much hotter than normal with widespread, intense anomalies in Alberta and southern British Columbia.

Mexico is forecast to experience warmer than normal conditions in Baja and western Sonora, Coahuila and southern Chihuahua, the central Pacific Coast, the south reaching from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to the Gulf of Mexico, and the Yucatán. Anomalies will be severe to extreme in many of these regions and will reach exceptional intensity in northwestern Sonora and in Guerrero. Some moderately cooler pockets are expected in western Chihuahua and central Mexico.

Central America and the Caribbean will be warmer than normal with anomalies of varying intensity including extremely warmer temperatures in Jamaica, western Cuba, and the northern Bahamas.

Though much of central and southern South America can expect normal temperatures, many remaining areas of the continent will see warm anomalies of varying intensity. Anomalies will be widespread in Brazil with extreme to exceptional anomalies in Pará, Maranhão, Tocantins, Goiás, and the smaller east coast states. Ecuador, Colombia, and northwestern and southern Venezuela will be moderately warmer overall, though extreme anomalies are forecast in the Upper Caroni River region from southeastern Venezuela into Guyana. Suriname and French Guiana will be warmer than normal. The Peruvian Andes will be exceptionally warmer as will southern Bolivia. From northern Chile into Argentina warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast. Patagonia will be moderately warmer than normal.

In Europe, the Nordic nations light up the map with intensely hotter than normal conditions that will reach into the Baltics, Belarus, westernmost Russia, and northern Germany. Eastern and Central Europe can expect moderate to extreme warm anomalies. In the U.K. and Ireland, anomalies will be severe overall and extreme in Scotland. France and Spain will be moderately warmer as will pockets of Italy and the Balkans, but anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in Slovenia and severe on Spain’s Mediterranean Coast.

Exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures will be widespread across northern Africa. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in West Africa and exceptionally hotter conditions are expected in many coastal areas from Sierra Leone through Nigeria. Anomalies will be severe in Cameroon, extreme in Equatorial Guinea, and of varying intensity through west coast nations. In central Namibia, anomalies will be severe to exceptional. The Orange River Watershed in South Africa will see exceptionally warmer temperatures as will the nation’s northeast region and Eswatini (Swaziland). Elsewhere in southern Africa, moderate to severe warm anomalies are expected with more intense conditions in northeastern Madagascar.

The eastern reaches of the Congo Basin will be somewhat cooler than normal but western Democratic Republic of the Congo will be warmer with extreme anomalies in Kinshasa. Central South Sudan will be cooler than normal. In the Horn of Africa and East Africa, temperatures will be warmer than the norm in the Ethiopian Highlands, southern Somalia, southern Kenya, and pockets of northern Tanzania. Anomalies will be intense in Kenya.

In the Middle East, much hotter than normal temperatures are forecast for Saudi Arabia, the small Persian Gulf nations, western and southern Iraq, many regions of Iran, and pockets of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. Turkey can expect warm anomalies of varying intensity, and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures along the Black Sea Coast. Cooler pockets are also expected in northern Yemen and southern Iran.

Intensely warmer than normal conditions are forecast for several regions of Central Asia and Russia including Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and a vast area of Russia along its border with Mongolia into southern Siberia and to the Sea of Okhotsk. Warm anomalies of generally lesser intensity are expected across southern Kazakhstan and in Tajikistan and southern Kyrgyzstan. Eastern Kyrgyzstan will be somewhat cooler than normal.

Central India will be moderately warmer but anomalies in the south, far north, and Far Northeast will be more intense. Elsewhere in South Asia, warm anomalies are expected throughout Bangladesh and will reach extreme intensity in the center of the country including Dhaka. Bhutan and Nepal will be warmer than normal. Central Pakistan will be exceptionally warmer, northern Pakistan moderately warmer. Severe warm anomalies are forecast for northern Afghanistan.

Most of East Asia will be warmer than normal with intensely warmer conditions in South and Southeast China, Taiwan, southern Tibet, and a vast expanse in the northwest from western Inner Mongolia into central Xinjiang. Mongolia’s western half will be exceptionally warmer with anomalies downgrading as they stretch eastward. The Korean Peninsula and Japan can expect moderately warmer temperatures overall with some pockets of greater intensity including Kyushu, Japan.

Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will blanket Southeast Asia and the Pacific except in Vietnam’s northern extent where temperatures are expected to be normal. Warm anomalies will be exceptional in many regions including Myanmar’s southern half, northeastern Borneo, and much of the Philippines.

Australia can expect temperatures to be normal in most of its southern half. Moderately warmer temperatures will form a wide path along the east coast from the Cape York Peninsula in Far North Queensland and south through Melbourne and into Tasmania. Anomalies will reach extreme intensity in northernmost Cape York and severe intensity in Cairns, around Brisbane, and in southern Tasmania. Top End, Northern Territory will be much warmer than normal along its coast but moderately warmer inland surrounding Katherine. Further west, the Kimberley region will also be moderately warmer. In New Zealand’s South Island, warm anomalies will be severe to extreme. Severe warm anomalies are forecast for New Caledonia.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released July 2, 2021 which includes forecasts for July 2021 through March 2022 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued June 24 through June 30, 2021.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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