Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits will emerge in Pechora Watershed

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits will emerge in Pechora Watershed

30 June 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits in southwestern Kazakhstan on the Caspian Sea. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Exceptional surpluses are forecast in a pocket on Turkmenistan’s central Caspian Coast; a large pocket in the northern Kyzylkum Desert from Uzbekistan into Kazakhstan; the Ishim River Watershed of northern Kazakhstan; and south of Lake Balkhash. Intense surpluses are also forecast for central Tajikistan and the southern portion of the Fergana Valley. Kyrgyzstan can expect surpluses of lesser intensity east of Lake Issyk-Kul.

West of the Ural Mountains in Russia, surpluses are forecast in the coastal Arctic and the Vychegda Lowlands, but deficits are expected in the Upper Mezen River region, much of the Pechora River Watershed, and many regions in the Urals. East of the Urals, intense deficits are forecast in the Tura River region, particularly around Tyumen, and in the north on the central banks of the Gulf of Ob and the Lower Yenisei River region. Surpluses are expected in the remaining Yenisei River Watershed and will include exceptional anomalies. Pockets of the Central Siberian Plateau will experience deficits though exceptional surpluses are forecast at the eastern edge between the Olenyok and Markha Rivers.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through August indicates that deficits will emerge in Russia’s Pechora River Watershed in the northwest and will increase from Trans-Volga past Tyumen where anomalies will continue to be exceptional. Exceptional deficits will increase on the middle banks of the Gulf of Ob but will shrink east of the Gulf. Surpluses will remain widespread in the Yenisei River Watershed but the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink. Deficits will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau though exceptional surpluses will persist in the east between the Olenek and Markha Rivers.

Deficits will shrink and moderate in western Kazakhstan, and generally mild to moderate deficits are forecast in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Surpluses will persist in northern and southeastern Kazakhstan, central Tajikistan, the Kyzylkum Desert, and eastern Kyrgyzstan.

From September through November, deficits will become exceptional in Russia’s Mezen River Watershed, will shrink in the Pechora River region, and will nearly disappear from Trans-Volga through Tyumen. Deficits on the Gulf of Ob will be severe. In the Central Siberian Plateau deficits are forecast to shrink considerably and intense surpluses will persist in the eastern region of the plateau. Surpluses in the Upper and Middle Yenisei River Watershed will downgrade but remain widespread. Deficits in Central Asia are expected to nearly disappear. Surpluses will persist in northern and southeastern Kazakhstan and eastern Kyrgyzstan while beginning to transition in central Tajikistan and the Kyzylkum Desert.

The forecast for the final months – December 2021 through February 2022 – indicates that deficits will shrink in the Mezen and Pechora River regions in Russia, persist on the banks of the Gulf of Ob, and increase in the Central Siberian Plateau while surpluses continue in its eastern region, downgrading slightly. Surpluses in the Yenisei region will shrink. Deficits will emerge in northern and eastern Kazakhstan and into Russia. Surpluses will increase in southeastern Kazakhstan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Reduced precipitation during winter and spring combined with higher than average early summer temperatures have fueled dry conditions in Central Asia.

In Uzbekistan’s capital of Tashkent, the temperature in early June climbed to 42.6 C (108.68 F), while Dushanbe in Tajikistan and Ashgabat in Turkmenistan hit 45 C (113 F).

Drought in Kazakhstan’s western provinces led to the deaths of 2,000 animals, primarily horses, due to lack of food and water. Hay prices have risen by as much as 50 percent. Pastures are drying up in Tajikistan’s Khatlon region as well, leaving herders with limited grazing. Farmers in Kyrgyzstan's Chui Province and Turkmenistan’s eastern provinces are expecting large-scale crop losses. Food costs are on the rise in many areas of Central Asia.

Around 300 farmers gathered in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan in mid-June to protest shortages of irrigation water. A protest in a residential area drew a crowd of 30.

Agricultural industry experts in Russia say that prolonged drought is threatening grain crops in Tatarstan, Ulyanovsk, Bashkiria, Kurgan, Orenburg, and Chelyabinsk regions.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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