Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surpluses in C America will shrink

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surpluses in C America will shrink

29 June 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending February 2022 indicates primarily normal water conditions in much of Mexico. However, deficits are expected in the Baja Peninsula, intense in the northern half and moderate in the south. Pockets of mild to moderate deficit are expected in southern Chihuahua in northern Mexico, Tamaulipas on the northern Gulf Coast and southern Veracruz and Tabasco States in the south. Some smaller pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in central Pacific states.

In Central America and the Caribbean, moderate deficits are expected in central Guatemala, the southern tip of Belize, and central El Salvador. North-central Honduras, southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western Panama can expect surpluses, moderate overall with a few more intense small pockets. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for central Jamaica. Central Cuba will also see surplus conditions though deficits are forecast in Cuba’s western tip. Surpluses are expected in the central Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through August indicates that deficits in the bulk of Mexico will shrink but deficits will emerge in the Yucatán and along the southern Gulf Coast as surpluses there retreat. Deficits will persist in the northern half of the Baja Peninsula, mild to moderate overall. Moderate deficits will also persist in southern Chihuahua and a few pockets in Tamaulipas. Southern Veracruz and Tabasco can expect severe deficits. Central America will transition out of dominant surpluses. Severe deficits are forecast in southern Belize, and moderate deficits in central Guatemala and central El Salvador. Honduras will see mixed and transitional conditions. Moderate to severe surpluses will linger in southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Intense surpluses will persist in central Jamaica and central Cuba, and moderate surpluses in the central Bahamas. Deficits are expected to retreat from eastern Dominican Republic, and some pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in Haiti.

From September through November, nearly normal conditions will return to Mexico with some primarily mild deficits lingering. A small pocket of exceptional surplus will persist on the northeastern border of Sonora in the region of the Rio Batepito. Some mild to moderate deficits are forecast for Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras, and moderate surpluses on Nicaragua’s southern Caribbean Coast and in small, isolated pockets of Costa Rica and Panama. Transitions are forecast in Jamaica, surpluses in central Cuba, and nearly normal conditions in the rest of the Caribbean.

The forecast for the final three months – December 2021 through February 2022 – indicates mild deficits and normal conditions for much of Mexico, but intense deficits in coastal Oaxaca on Mexico’s southern Pacific Coast and moderate deficits in central Baja, southern Chihuahua, and southern Veracruz. Moderate deficits are forecast for central Guatemala, northwestern Honduras, and El Salvador. Surpluses are expected in some pockets of Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica, and Cuba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Mexico’s second-highest waterfall, Basaseachi waterfall in Chihuahua, is barely a trickle, its normally crowd-pleasing intensity choked by drought though local residents also point to several mining operations in the region that divert water. As of mid-June, much of the state was categorized as in severe drought.

Groundwater extraction is being cited as one of the causes of a massive sinkhole that opened up in the central Mexican state of Puebla. The family living on the farm where the 60 meters wide by 20 meters deep sinkhole developed were evacuated.

Rainfall deficits in parts of Cuba and Haiti are eliciting concern for main season cereal crops, according to Relief Web’s June Crop Monitor report. From December 2020 to April 2021, Cuba received just 54 percent of normal precipitation.

Recent heavy rainfall in Honduras brought back memories of Hurricanes Eta and Iota that struck the nation in November of 2020. The deluge in mid-June of this year caused the Ulua River in the Sula Valley to burst its banks and break through flood barriers. Bank protection along some areas of the river that had not been repaired since damaged by last November’s storms suffered further damage, cutting off access to several villages.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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