Canada: Water deficits will downgrade in MB & SK

29 June 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through February 2022 indicates vast areas of water deficit in the eastern half of the nation. Areas of exceptional deficit include southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, northeastern Quebec into western Labrador and along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and spanning the northern Quebec/Ontario border.

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Deficits of varying intensity are expected in Southern Ontario reaching east through Ottawa, Montreal, and Québec City. Likewise, deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario’s Kenora District though surpluses are forecast on Hudson Bay. In Manitoba, deficits are expected in the south that will be extreme to exceptional from Winnipeg following the Assiniboine River west of the city. Exceptional deficits are forecast in a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg and on Hudson Bay, with surpluses elsewhere in the north reaching into Saskatchewan.

Deficits are forecast in a path across southern Saskatchewan where anomalies will be intense around Regina; moderate pockets are expected in the center of the province. Northwestern Saskatchewan can expect extreme to exceptional surpluses leading well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west into Alberta. Surpluses are expected in a pocket east of Calgary, Alberta and some deficits in the south. Deficits will be intense in central Alberta in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed and in the province’s northwest corner spanning the border with British Columbia.

British Columbia’s Vancouver Island will see deficits as will the province’s southeastern corner. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in much of the Fraser River Watershed though intense deficits are forecast near Prince George in the north. Deficits will also be intense near British Columbia’s northern border, expanding as they reach well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through August indicates that deficits will increase in the east as surpluses retreat. Exceptional deficits will persist in many areas including southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, and a broad column along the Quebec-Ontario border. Surpluses will emerge in Quebec in the southeast corner of Hudson Bay and will persist along the bay in Ontario, while deficits continue elsewhere in most of Ontario. In the Prairie Provinces, deficits will shrink and downgrade in the south and in central Saskatchewan. Exceptional deficits are forecast across Manitoba’s middle and near Hudson Bay, in the Middle Athabasca River Watershed in Saskatchewan downgrading somewhat, and in northwestern Alberta. Surpluses will persist in the Athabasca’s upper basin and increase in northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba. In British Columbia, deficits will remain intense on Vancouver Island, in the province’s southeast corner, near Prince George, and along the northern border. Surpluses will persist in much of the Fraser River watershed.

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From September through November, surpluses will nearly disappear in the eastern half of the country and deficits will shrink considerably. Deficits will shrink and moderate in southern Manitoba and southern Alberta, and retreat from southern Saskatchewan. The distribution of anomalies in the northern halves of the Prairie Provinces will remain much the same, though surpluses will downgrade in Manitoba and deficits will downgrade in Alberta. In British Columbia, deficits will shrink and downgrade, and surpluses will shrink in the eastern portion of the Fraser River Watershed.

The forecast for the final months – December 2021 through February 2022 – indicates a forecast much like that of the prior three months though deficits in the east will shrink as will surpluses in northern Manitoba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
British Columbia’s capital, Victoria, experienced its driest spring on record, with less than a third of the normal precipitation. The fire authority for the coastal area of southern BC reports nearly twice as many fires in the area this year.

Compounding the threat of fire due to drought, the region is also sitting under an unprecedented heat dome - the village of Lytton in southern BC recorded a national high temperature of 46.1 C (115 F) - and records are being broken all over the province. Vancouver Island’s berry farmers say the extreme heat is destroying their crops, with one farm reporting losses of 25 to 50 percent.

Ontario’s 2021 wildfire season is running significantly higher than the 10-year average, 330 compared to 207, a nearly 60 percent increase. To help battle the blazes, Ontario firefighters have been joined by a crew of 81 on loan from Alberta. Precipitation in Ontario has been about half the normal for this time of year.

Despite recent rainfall, Manitoba remains in drought, creating concerns among livestock farmers as pastures dry up and watering holes shrink. Minimal rain last fall and a lack of snow this past winter have created conditions described by one cattle industry leader as the worst in 40 years.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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