Europe: Water deficits in France & the Baltics

25 June 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits in Estonia, Latvia, and central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed reaching across the border into Norway. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in central Norway, and intense deficits in Finnish Lapland.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202103-202202_12mo_twitter.png

Widespread surpluses reaching extreme to exceptional intensity are forecast in Murmansk, Russia, and into northern Norway. Surpluses are also expected in pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia and in Western European Russia in the Upper Volga River Watershed, the Upper Desna River Watershed (a tributary of the Dnieper), and the Don River Watershed where anomalies will be exceptional. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast for the Vychegda Lowland. Deficits are expected in the Upper Mezen River region of northern Russia.

The United Kingdom can expect pockets of surplus in the Scottish Highlands, the Lake District, and northern Wales. Widespread, primarily moderate deficits are forecast in western and southern France and into northeastern Spain. Deficits will be more intense in pockets along the Mediterranean Coast from Marseille past Barcelona to the mouth of the Ebro River, and severe deficits are expected around Seville, Spain. Other areas with a forecast of deficit include Belgium, Germany’s Harz Mountains, a pocket in western Belarus, Sardinia, and the region surrounding Bologna, Italy, where anomalies will be intense. In Belgium, deficits will be exceptional in the northern Ardennes region and severe on the Upper Schelte River.

In Eastern Europe and the Balkans, surpluses are expected in Romania, Zhytomyr Oblast in western Ukraine, Czech Republic, southern Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, eastern Bulgaria, and the Pindus Mountains in northern Greece.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through August indicates that surpluses will shrink in Central and Eastern Europe and the Balkans, persisting primarily in Romania, eastern Bulgaria, parts of Ukraine, from Kosovo into North Macedonia, and northwestern Greece. Surpluses will remain widespread in Western European Russia, downgrading slightly, and will persist in much of Finland and in the northern extremes of its Nordic neighbors. Deficits are forecast for most remaining areas of Sweden and Norway and will include intense anomalies. Exceptional deficits will increase in Finnish Lapland and persist in Estonia and Latvia.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202103-202202_3mo_twitter.png

Surpluses will downgrade in Ireland and the U.K. while remaining widespread in Wales and England and will emerge in the Netherlands. Deficits will intensify in central and western France, becoming severe; moderate on the coast near Marseille; and increase in the southeast, emerging in the Alps and northern Italy. Deficits will also increase in Switzerland, emerge in Austria, and persist in Belgium and many regions of Germany. Deficits will become severe around Seville and will increase in Sicily and Sardinia.

From September through November, normal conditions will return to many regions of Europe. Surpluses will shrink considerably but will persist in Murmansk and into northernmost Norway, pockets around the Baltic Sea, and pockets in Eastern Europe, the Baltics, and Western European Russia. Moderate to extreme deficits will persist in the Dalälven River Watershed in Sweden and some moderate deficits are forecast in Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, Belgium, and southwestern France.

The forecast for the remaining months – December 2021 through February 2022 – indicates pockets of surplus in Murmansk, the Nordic nations and Baltic Russia, the border region of Scotland and England, and central Europe. Deficits are forecast in Finnish Lapland, the Dalälven River Watershed, and pockets in southern France and around the Mediterranean.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Increased rainfall in France during May did little to alleviate drought conditions, failing to recharge depleted groundwater supply. For several winters in a row, the water tables in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes have not sufficiently recharged. As of mid-June, 14 departments of France are already under water use restrictions including three with a 50 percent reduction in water for agricultural use.

In Macerata Province in central Italy’s Marche region, April precipitation was 40 percent below the long-term average and rainfall in May was 75 percent below. Agricultural losses are expected to be 20-40 percent in production of durum wheat, soft wheat and barley, while losses in alfalfa could reach 50 percent. Italy’s famed Po River that flows through the northern region of the country is 30 percent lower than its seasonal average.

Lawmakers in Wallonia, Belgium have earmarked 34 million euros (US $40.5 million) to compensate for the 2020 drought in the region that lasted for six months.

Unusually heavy rainfall struck Greece in mid-June, dumping a month’s worth of precipitation on Athens in just 40 hours, shutting down power and snarling traffic. The storm was accompanied by so much hail in Kozani than snow plows were brought in to clear the area.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags