Middle East: Water deficits will increase in Turkey

25 June 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending February indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions and will include vast areas of extreme to exceptional anomalies.

While deficits will be moderate on the Mediterranean Coast, deficits elsewhere in the Levant and throughout much of the Arabian Peninsula will be intense. Areas with a forecast of exceptional deficit include Iraq west of the Euphrates River, eastern and southern Jordan, Riyadh Province in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates.

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Exceptional surpluses and transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast for north-central Syria, but deficits are expected elsewhere and will be exceptional around Aleppo. Transitions are also expected in regions along Saudi Arabia’s central Red Sea Coast and in the south leading into Yemen. Deficits will be intense in southwestern Yemen near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and in southern Oman. Moderate surpluses are expected in Saudi Arabia’s southern tip on the Red Sea.

Intense deficits are forecast for Cyprus, and Turkey can expect exceptional deficits in much of its western third and in the east with deficits of lesser intensity in the center of the nation. In Iran, exceptional deficits will dominate Fars, Bushehr, and northern Kerman Provinces, and extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in Esfahan. Surpluses are forecast south of Lake Urmia, along the central Black Sea Coast, and in the southeast in Sistan and Baluchestan Province.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through August indicates that, though the extent of exceptional deficit will shrink considerably, widespread deficits will persist in the region and exceptional deficits will increase in Turkey, emerging in the east.

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Moderate to severe deficits are forecast along the eastern Mediterranean Coast into Syria, with transitional conditions (purple) in the center of the country. Deficits in Iraq will downgrade, with moderate pockets in the south and severe pockets in the northeast. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in central Saudi Arabia with deficits of lesser intensity or transitional conditions elsewhere. Deficits will be generally moderate in Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and northern Oman. A complicated patchwork of water conditions is expected in Iran with deficits overall, exceptional in Fars and Kerman Provinces. Surpluses will shrink, persisting on the central Black Sea Coast and emerging in pockets of Sistan and Baluchestan in the southeast.

From September through November, deficits will shrink and downgrade. Intense anomalies will persist in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia. Normal conditions or mild deficits are expected in the Levant and surpluses will re-emerge in central Syria. Exceptional deficits will nearly disappear from Turkey, persisting in the southwest. Northwest Iran will normalize, surpluses will persist on the Black Sea Coast and mild to moderate deficits elsewhere, with intense deficits in Fars and Kerman Provinces.

In the final quarter – December 2021 through February 2022 – some pockets of intense deficit are forecast in central Turkey and moderate deficits in Saudi Arabia along the northern coast of the Red Sea. Intense surpluses will increase in central Syria and will re-emerge in Iraq near Mosul and in Iran near the eastern edge of the Black Sea. Surpluses will also re-emerge on the central border of Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Syria’s most severe drought in 70 years will likely destroy more than half of the 1.5 million hectares of wheat this year. Up to 70 percent of the nation’s wheat and barley fields are rain-fed and the eastern provinces that generate 80 percent of these crops have been particularly hard-hit. Further west in Raqqa, the water level in Tishreen Reservoir has dropped by four meters and by five meters in al-Assad Lake, both along the Euphrates River. Conflict over water flowing from the Euphrates is a long-standing issue between Turkey and its downstream neighbors, but Turkey is currently experiencing drought as well. Syria’s compromised harvest will increase food insecurity in a region that has historically struggled to feed itself.

The ministry of agriculture and water resources in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region predicts a major fish die-off this year due to low water levels. While annual fish deaths are common, losses could be in the millions this year, significantly higher than normal. Below average winter and spring precipitation contributed to depleted water supply. Kurdistan has progressed on construction of a new dam, part of a long-term multi-dam project to help address agricultural water shortages in the region.

In Iran, drought has reduced hydroelectricity production. Rolling black-outs began in May, and Iran will increase electricity imports and end exports. Energy intensive cryptocurrency-mining has been banned in the country for four months, through 22 September. The nation’s agricultural sector has lost 670 trillion rials ($2.79 billion) so far during the current crop year due to drought.

Jordan has announced plans to build a desalination plant on the Red Sea to help address chronic water shortages due to low precipitation, warming trends, population growth, and refugees. This year’s drought has left key reservoirs sourced for drinking water at low levels.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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