South Asia: Water deficits in India’s Far Northeast

South Asia: Water deficits in India’s Far Northeast

25 June 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2022 indicates moderate to extreme water deficits in India’s Far Northeast. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in Jammu and Kashmir, moderate surpluses in northern Odisha on the Bay of Bengal and neighboring Jharkhand, and surpluses of varying intensity from Maharashtra through Karnataka, Kerala, and pockets of Tamil Nadu.

Surpluses are also forecast for southwestern Sri Lanka and will trace the Gandaki River through central Nepal into India. In Bhutan, surpluses are expected in the northwest and deficits in the east. Moderate surpluses are forecast in a path north of Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Surpluses are expected in many regions of Pakistan and will include exceptional anomalies. In southwestern Baluchistan Province, however, moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast. In Afghanistan, deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast for the Lower Helmand River region of the south; moderate to severe deficits on either side of Mazar-e Sharif in the north; and surpluses in the center of the country.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through August indicates that surpluses will shrink in India but will remain widespread from western Maharashtra through the southern states and will include exceptional anomalies, particularly in Karnataka. Surpluses of varying intensity will extend through Sri Lanka as well. Surpluses in northern Odisha, Jharkhand, and West Bengal will moderate. In the nation’s far north, surpluses will retreat from Himachal Pradesh but persist with intensity in Jammu and Kashmir. Near-normal conditions will return to the breadth of central India but mild to moderate surpluses are expected in southern Madhya Pradesh. Deficits will persist in India’s Far Northeast, reaching into Bhutan, and will include extreme to exceptional anomalies in Assam.

Bangladesh will return to nearly normal conditions and water anomalies will retreat from Nepal except on the Gandaki River. In Pakistan, widespread surpluses will persist, shrinking slightly in the north, and will include exceptional anomalies. Deficits will intensify in parts of southwestern Baluchistan Province, becoming exceptional. In Afghanistan, severe surpluses will persist in a pocket between the Harirud and Helmand Rivers with transitional conditions to the west and mixed conditions elsewhere.

From September through November, near-normal conditions are expected in India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka. Some surpluses will linger in far northern India and moderate surpluses will increase in northern Maharashtra. Surpluses in Pakistan will shrink somewhat and many areas will begin to transition. Moderate deficits are forecast in the southwest. A pocket of severe surplus will persist in Afghanistan between the Harirud and Helmand River, increasing slightly.

The forecast for the final months – December 2021 through February 2022 – indicates persistent surpluses in Maharashtra and eastern Jammu and Kashmir, and emerging deficits in India’s Far Northeast and in the west where anomalies will be exceptional in southern Gujarat. Surpluses are forecast in central Pakistan. In Afghanistan, surpluses will emerge from transitional conditions in a pocket near Mazar-e Sharif, and south of Herat while retreating from the region to the east.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Cyclone Yaas struck India’s east coast in late May, wreaking an estimated INR 10 billion ($140 million) worth of damage to the shrimp farming industry in Odisha and West Bengal. At least nine deaths were reported in India and Bangladesh. Nearly 300,000 homes were destroyed in West Bengal alone, and the storm surge in low-lying areas was 3 to 4 meters (about 9 to 12 feet).

Days of incessant rainfall in early June triggered flooding and landslides in Sri Lanka, claiming 17 lives. Many rivers in the western and southern regions of the nation overflowed, affecting over 270,000 people. About 100,000 buildings experienced power outages.

At least 16 people were killed after monsoon rains hit Nepal in the middle of the month. Flooding and mudslides left many missing as well when the Melamchi River burst its banks and the Indrawati River Basin was inundated. Flooding destroyed four concrete bridges, five suspension bridges, a number of government buildings, and washed away seven trout fish farms and eight workers.

Nearly 3 million Afghans have been affected by drought this year, pushing 35 percent of the nation into food insecurity. The situation is especially grim in Badghis, Faryab, and Sar-e-Pul provinces, where agriculture and pasturing is dependent on rainfall. The drought has forced some to consume dirty water, resulting in medical problems and, in some cases, death.

In Jaghori district, home to over half a million people in Ghazi province, a crowd-funded campaign has gained followers with the goal of building reservoirs and small dams to store water in the parched region. A recent bride sold her wedding jewelry to donate money to the cause and an elderly couple contributed nearly $4,000, money saved for a Hajj pilgrimage canceled by the covid pandemic.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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