Canada: Widespread water deficits forecast

23 July 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through March 2022 indicates vast areas of exceptional water deficit in the eastern half of the nation and widespread deficits of varying intensity, including exceptional anomalies, in many areas of the remaining provinces. Areas of exceptional deficit in the east include southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, northeastern Quebec into western Labrador and along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, near Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and spanning the northern Quebec/Ontario border.

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Deficits of varying intensity are expected in Southern Ontario reaching east through Ottawa, Montreal, and Québec City. Likewise, deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario’s Kenora District though surpluses are forecast on Hudson Bay. In Manitoba, deficits are expected in the south that will be severe to exceptional from Winnipeg following the Assiniboine River west of the city. Exceptional deficits are forecast in a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg and on Hudson Bay, with surpluses elsewhere in the north reaching into Saskatchewan.

Deficits are forecast across southern Saskatchewan, exceptional in Regina and along a path leading west. Northwestern Saskatchewan can expect extreme to exceptional surpluses leading well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west into Alberta. Elsewhere in Alberta, deficits will dominate with exceptional anomalies south of Calgary, between Edmonton and the city of Peace River, and in the province’s northwest corner leading into British Columbia.

British Columbia’s Vancouver Island will see deficits as will areas near the U.S. border. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the province’s southern Cariboo region, but intense deficits are forecast farther north in the Fraser River Watershed near Prince George. Deficits will also be intense near British Columbia’s northern border, expanding as they reach well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through September indicates widespread deficits throughout many regions of the Canadian provinces. In Canada’s eastern half, deficits will be exceptional in many eastern areas including southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, a broad column along the Quebec-Ontario border, Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City. In the Prairie Provinces, deficits will be widespread in the southern halves of Manitoba and Saskatchewan and intense deficits will extend throughout much of Alberta. Deficits will be moderate to extreme in southern Manitoba, extreme near Winnipeg. Conditions in southern Saskatchewan will range from moderate to severe. British Columbia can expect intense deficits on Vancouver Island and near the U.S. border, surpluses in the Chilcotin River region of west Cariboo, and intense deficits in the Fraser River Watershed near Prince George and at the province’s northern border leading into the Northwest Territories and Yukon. Surpluses are forecast in northern Saskatchewan, northwestern Manitoba, and along Hudson Bay in Ontario.

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From October through December, deficits will shrink and downgrade. Areas of intense deficit include Newfoundland, Lake Mistassini, James Bay, central and northeastern Manitoba, and pockets of Alberta. In southern Manitoba and southern Alberta, pockets of moderate to extreme deficit are forecast. Deficits are forecast on the South Saskatchewan River through Saskatoon but much of Saskatchewan south of there will return to normal. Surpluses will downgrade slightly in northern Saskatchewan, shrink in northwestern Manitoba, increase somewhat in British Columbia’s western Cariboo and re-emerge in the south near Kelowna.

The forecast for the final months – January through March 2022 – indicates a forecast much like that of the prior period though moderate surpluses will increase in southern British Columbia and deficits will retreat from the South Saskatchewan River.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
After three days of national record-breaking heat culminating with a temperature of 49.5 C (121 F) in late June, the British Columbia town of Lytton burned to the ground. Exacerbated by dry conditions, 90 percent of the village was destroyed in the inferno that claimed two lives.

Extreme heat and multiple wildfires have stunned British Columbia. The province recorded 486 heat-related deaths over five days, nearly three times the average, and as 300 wildfires burned the provincial government declared a state of emergency on 21 July, prompting evacuations. Neighboring Alberta has committed 350 military personnel to support BC’s firefighting troops.

Smoke-filled air from wildfires in Manitoba and Ontario have turned cityscapes hazy and elicited air quality advisories, with some outdoor activities cancelled.

Drought across the Prairie Provinces has lowered forecasts for spring wheat and rapeseed crops. Rapeseed plants, the source of canola oil, are flowering much too early, stressed by heat and drought, prompting agricultural experts to project a decline in canola production. Facing what he calls the worst drought in 33 years, one farmer in Manitoba is predicting a yield of just 20 percent of last year’s.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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