South Asia: Water surpluses in India will shrink

South Asia: Water surpluses in India will shrink

23 July 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2022 indicates moderate to extreme water deficits in India’s Far Northeast. Surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in Jammu and Kashmir, moderate to severe surpluses are expected in West Bengal and Jharkhand, and surpluses of varying intensity will stretch from western Maharashtra through central and southern Karnataka and into Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

Intense surpluses are forecast for southwestern Sri Lanka and through Nepal along the Gandaki River into India, with surpluses of lesser intensity in Nepalese districts bordering the Gandaki. In Bhutan, surpluses will be exceptional west of the capital, Thimphu. Surpluses are expected throughout much of Bangladesh, moderate to severe overall but anomalies could be extreme in a path north of Dhaka.

Many regions of Pakistan will experience surpluses including exceptional anomalies. In Baluchistan Province, however, deficits are forecast. In Afghanistan, deficits will be severe to exceptional in the provinces surrounding Mazar-e Sharif in the north and of varying intensity southwest of Kandahar in the Lower Helmand River region. Some pockets of moderate surplus are expected in the center of the country and transitional conditions (pink/purple) in the west as deficits emerge.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through September indicates that surpluses will shrink and downgrade considerably in the region. Surpluses of varying intensity are, however, forecast for many regions in India’s southern half, moderate in Maharashtra, moderate to severe in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, and reaching extreme or even exceptional intensity in Karnataka. Surpluses will follow much of Tamil Nadu’s east coast and are expected throughout Sri Lanka, intense in the southwest. Surpluses in West Bengal and Jharkhand will moderate and intense surpluses in Jammu and Kashmir will shrink. Deficits in India’s Far Northeast will shrink and moderate, persisting primarily in central Assam.

In Bangladesh, surpluses will downgrade but remain widespread. Exceptional surpluses will persist on the Gandaki River in Nepal and its path into India, with moderate surpluses in Nepalese districts near the Gandaki and in the northwest. Mixed conditions are forecast in Pakistan with intense surpluses in the far north, surpluses and transitional conditions in the center of the nation and winding south, and deficits in Baluchistan Province reaching exceptional intensity. In Afghanistan, deficits and transitional conditions are expected in the provinces surrounding Mazar-e Sharif in the north, severe surpluses in a pocket between the Harirud and Helmand Rivers, and transitional conditions in the west.

From October through December, surpluses will continue to retreat. In India, pockets of moderate surplus will persist in Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, and in India’s southern tip. Surpluses in Jammu and Kashmir will shrink and moderate. Exceptional deficits will emerge in Gujarat around the Gulf of Kutch while deficits in Assam in the Far Northeast continue to shrink. In Pakistan, surpluses will begin to moderate in the far north, surpluses and transitional conditions will persist in the center of the country leading south, and deficits will become mild. Deficits will be mild in Afghanistan as well, while surpluses increase in the west and center of the country.  

The forecast for the final months – January through March 2022 – indicates the emergence of widespread deficits in western India including exceptional anomalies. Moderate deficits will increase in the Far Northeast and will emerge in pockets of the northern states. Moderate deficits are also forecast in Pakistan as transitions occur.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
By early July, the death toll from flooding and landslides during mid-June in Nepal had risen to 38 with dozens still unaccounted for. After monsoons rains struck last month the Melamchi River overflowed. Flooding there and in many other parts of the nation displaced 5,100 people.

Heavy rainfall in India’s largest city, Mumbai, triggered flooding and landslides that claimed 31 lives. More than 250 mm (9.8 inches) of rain fell in just 24 hours. A basement parking lot flooded leaving 400 vehicles submerged, and a water purification station flooded, compromising the city’s water supply.

Pakistan’s Sindh region is heading for famine warns the province’s irrigation manager. Ten districts are reporting drought, and as of 7 July the province had a mere ten days of water reserves.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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