Africa: Intense water deficits will emerge in Zambia & Kenya

Africa: Intense water deficits will emerge in Zambia & Kenya

23 July 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits in many regions of North Africa, particularly Algeria, Libya, and Egypt, along with some transitional areas (pink/purple). A pocket of exceptional surplus is forecast in Egypt near the Suez Canal.

West Africa can expect deficits of varying intensity in its Sahel region along with transitional conditions. Nations along the northern Gulf of Guinea will see mixed water conditions, relatively normal in many areas but with intense deficits in northern Benin and southeastern Nigeria and some scattered pockets of moderate surplus. From Nigeria, deficits reaching exceptional intensity are expected along the Gulf of Guinea through Gabon. Some pockets of surplus are forecast in Chad and southern Sudan, while deficits are forecast for northern Sudan.

In the heart of the continent, Central African Republic’s western corner will see moderate surpluses, but moderate to severe deficits will prevail in the east and through the northern half of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), becoming extreme to exceptional in the far north. In the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia, southern Eritrea, Djibouti, western Somaliland, and southern Somalia will experience deficits. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Nugaal Valley. In East Africa, exceptional deficits are expected in coastal Kenya and surpluses in many regions of Tanzania.

In southern Africa, Angola can expect deficits in the north and southwest including exceptional anomalies. Namibia will see intense deficits in the southwest, some moderate surpluses on its central coast, and widespread surpluses in the east reaching through much of Botswana. Surpluses will bleed across Botswana’s southern border into South Africa. Surpluses are also forecast on the coast near Cape Town and a few pockets in Eastern Cape. Severe deficits are expected east of Johannesburg and in Lesotho. Mixed conditions are forecast for southern Mozambique and nearly normal water conditions in Madagascar.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through September indicates deficits in North Africa including vast areas of exceptional deficit. Intense deficits will downgrade in western Libya but increase in Egypt and northern Sudan, transitioning from surplus. Conditions will normalize across much of the southern Sahara and the Sahel to the Gulf of Aden. Moderate surpluses will emerge in nations on the Gulf of Guinea’s north coast, transitioning from deficit. Intense deficits will persist in central Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea and will increase in Gabon. Deficits in central Africa will become mild; surpluses will persist in south-central Democratic Republic of the Congo. Exceptional deficits are forecast in eastern Kenya, severe deficits in southeastern Uganda, and surpluses in Tanzania. Intense deficits will emerge in Zambia and persist in northwestern Angola. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and eastern South Africa. Surpluses near Cape Town will downgrade. Transitional and mixed conditions are forecast for Namibia, Botswana, Mozambique, and Madagascar.

The forecast for October through December indicates pockets of moderate to exceptional deficit in Libya, Mauritania, northern Sudan, Eritrea, and Somaliland. Surpluses will emerge in pockets of Egypt, persist in northern Somalia, and shrink along the northern Gulf of Guinea and in East Africa. Widespread surpluses will re-emerge in central Namibia and Botswana. Surpluses elsewhere include southern Mozambique, and Western Cape, South Africa and pockets along the southeast coast.  

The forecast for the final quarter – January through March 2022 – indicates moderate to exceptional deficits in Egypt, northern Sudan, and Eritrea, and deficits of lesser intensity in northern Nigeria, Guinea, and Sierra Leone. Some pockets of surplus are expected around the northern Gulf of Guinea, Uganda, and coastal South Africa. Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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