Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surpluses forecast in Sonora

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surpluses forecast in Sonora

23 July 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending March 2022 indicates primarily normal water conditions in much of Mexico. However, deficits are expected in the Baja Peninsula and will be exceptional in Baja California. Severe deficits are expected in southern Tamaulipas on the Gulf of Mexico, and pockets of moderate deficit in southern Chihuahua and isolated pockets in the southern states.

Severe surpluses will skirt the central Pacific Coast. Generally moderate surpluses are forecast in pockets spanning the border of Sonora and Chihuahua in the north and in Durango and Zacatecas. 

In Central America and the Caribbean, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast from southern Nicaragua through western Panama. In the northern nations of Central America, no widespread or intense anomalies are expected but the forecast indicates a few small, isolated pockets of moderate surplus and of deficit. Surpluses are forecast in Cuba, and surpluses along with transitional conditions in Jamaica.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through September indicates that deficits in northern Mexico will retreat, with mild anomalies lingering in Baja, and surpluses will emerge. Surpluses are expected spanning the border of Sonora and Chihuahua, moderate overall but intense where the Rio Batepito leaves Sonora and enters the U.S. Moderate surpluses will also emerge in Durango and central Zacatecas. Smaller pockets are forecast in the central states and surpluses along the central Pacific Coast will shrink and downgrade. In southern Mexico, surpluses will retreat and pockets of deficit will emerge in southern Veracruz and Chiapas. In Central America, surpluses will shrink considerably and downgrade though anomalies will persist from southern Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica and in Panama. Deficits will retreat from western Cuba but are forecast for peninsular Haiti. Surpluses are forecast elsewhere in Cuba and transitional conditions in Jamaica.

From October through December, anomalies will shrink and downgrade, leaving lingering surpluses in northeastern Sonora and in Durango. Moderate deficits are forecast in southeastern Chihuahua and Chiapas. Some moderate deficits are also forecast from El Salvador into southeastern Guatemala. Surpluses are expected in central Cuba and central Jamaica.

The forecast for the final three months – January through March 2022 – indicates that pockets of exceptional deficit will emerge in Baja and along Mexico’s Pacific Coast in Jalisco, Guerrero, and Oaxaca. Deficits will increase in southeastern Chihuahua and moderate deficits will emerge in central Coahuila. From El Salvador into Guatemala moderate deficits will persist.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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