Middle East: Widespread water deficits in the region

Middle East: Widespread water deficits in the region

23 July 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending March indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions including vast areas with extreme to exceptional anomalies.

While deficits will be generally moderate on the Mediterranean Coast, deficits elsewhere in the Levant and throughout much of the Arabian Peninsula will be intense. Areas with a forecast of exceptional deficit include Iraq west of the Euphrates River, much of Jordan and northern Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates.

Transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast for north-central Syria, but deficits are expected elsewhere and will be exceptional around Aleppo. Transitions are also expected in regions along Saudi Arabia’s central Red Sea Coast. Deficits will be intense in southwestern Yemen near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

Intense deficits are forecast for Cyprus, and Turkey can expect exceptional deficits in its eastern third and deficits of generally lesser intensity in much of the remainder of the nation. In Iran, exceptional deficits will dominate much of Fars, Bushehr, and Hormozgan Provinces in the south and Esfahan Province in the center of the country. Surpluses are forecast in the southeast in Sistan and Baluchestan Province and along the central Black Sea Coast. Deficits and transitional conditions are expected in the northeast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through September indicates that, though the extent of exceptional deficit will shrink, widespread deficits will persist in the region and surpluses will nearly disappear. Deficits are expected to moderate in the Levant and Iraq with some lingering pockets of more intense deficit in southern Iraq and in the northeast. Turkey’s eastern half will continue to see deficits reaching exceptional intensity but deficits in the west will moderate overall and a few small pockets of surplus will persist. On the Arabian Peninsula, widespread extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast for central Saudi Arabia, framed by deficits and transitional conditions elsewhere in the nation. Moderate deficits are expected in Qatar, United Arab Emirates, northern Oman, and southwestern Yemen. In Iran, deficits are expected in many areas of the country, intense near the southern Persian Gulf and pockets of the northeast, and generally moderate though widespread elsewhere. Transitional conditions are also forecast, and some surpluses will persist on the central Caspian Sea Coast.  

From October through December, deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, persisting in pockets of central and northeastern Turkey, Fars Province in Iran, and southern Riyadh Province in Saudi Arabia where anomalies will be exceptional. Surpluses will re-emerge in central Syria and the central border of Saudi Arabia and Yemen and will increase along Iran’s Caspian Coast.

In the final quarter – January through March 2022 – the forecast indicates intense deficits in Saudi Arabia along the northern coast of the Red Sea and severe deficits in Riyadh Province. Pockets of deficit will emerge in the eastern Mediterranean region and deficits will increase in Iran near the Strait of Hormuz and in Yazd Province in the center of the country. Surpluses are forecast in northeastern Iran, central Syria, near Mosul, and on the central Saudi Arabia-Yemen border.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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