Middle East: Water deficits in Turkey will downgrade

18 August 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending April 2022 indicates water deficits in much of Turkey, throughout the Levant, and many regions in the Arabian Peninsula.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in Turkey including exceptional anomalies in the southwest, around the city of Konya in Central Anatolia, and east of the Euphrates (Firat) River. Intense deficits are forecast in Cyprus and in Georgia north of the Mtkvari (Kura) River including exceptional anomalies in Batumi on the coast and severe anomalies in Tbilisi. A pocket of surplus is expected in the Lesser Caucasus Region south of the river.

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Deficits will be exceptional in most of Jordan and many areas of Syria including Aleppo. Exceptional deficits are also forecast in Iraq west of the Euphrates River and in Saudi Arabia’s northern half. Mixed conditions are expected in southern Saudi Arabia with severe to exceptional deficits in the southeastern provinces and transitional conditions and pockets of surplus elsewhere. Exceptional deficits will dominate United Arab Emirates and most of Qatar and Bahrain. Mixed conditions are forecast in Yemen including intense deficits near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

In Iran, deficits are expected in much of Esfahan Province in the center of the country; along the northern Persian Gulf; and in the northeast near the Turkmen border. Surpluses are forecast in the southeast in Sistan and Baluchestan Province seeping west into Kerman, and along the central Black Sea Coast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through October indicates that deficits will downgrade but remain widespread in Turkey, the Levant, Iraq, and northern Saudi Arabia. Deficits will increase in northwestern Turkey and in Georgia, and exceptional deficits are expected throughout Kuwait reaching into nearby areas in southern Iraq. Exceptional deficits will increase in northern Riyadh Province and along the Persian Gulf in Saudi Arabia while transitional conditions are expected farther south and into Yemen. Moderate deficits are forecast for pockets of Yemen and Oman, and in United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

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In Iran, deficits are forecast in the southern provinces on the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Aden and will include exceptional anomalies near the Strait of Hormuz. Surpluses will persist on the central Black Sea Coast and inland to Tehran, and some scattered pockets of surplus are forecast near Lake Urmia in the northwest and in the Upper Karkheh River Basin.

From November 2021 through January 2022, deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, persisting in pockets of central and northeastern Turkey, western Georgia, pockets of northwestern Saudi Arabia and northern Riyadh Province, and southwestern Yemen, where anomalies will be exceptional near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Surpluses will re-emerge in central Syria and the central border spanning Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and will increase near Mosul, Iraq. In Iran, surpluses will retreat somewhat from the central Caspian Coast, but intense anomalies will re-emerge in Golestan Province and pockets nearby.

In the final quarter – February through April 2022 – the forecast indicates that pockets of deficit will emerge in the eastern Mediterranean region. Other areas of deficit include Saudi Arabia along the northern Red Sea and southern Riyadh Province, western Yemen, and southern Oman where anomalies will be exceptional. Surpluses are forecast in central Syria and Golestan, Iran, and small isolated pockets elsewhere.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Multiple wildfires burned for days in southern Turkey, leaving eight people dead and forcing thousands to evacuate. Though wildfires are common in the region, data indicates that the number of fires so far this year is threefold the normal and the burned area is already three times the annual average.

While the south was battling fires, flash flooding along the Turkey’s Black Sea Coast in the northern province of Kastamonu killed 59 people with many still missing. Over 300 villages were without electricity, military personnel were deployed to aid in rescue, and helicopters delivered food and generators to communities cut off by flood-damaged roads.

Heavy rainfall triggered flooding in seven northern Iranian provinces including Qazvin and Zanjan, claiming three lives.

Elsewhere in Iran, drought has reduced prospects for the nation’s wheat production. An official with the country’s federal agricultural committee estimates that Iran will need to import eight million tons of wheat this year.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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