South Asia: Water surpluses will persist in Krishna River Basin

South Asia: Water surpluses will persist in Krishna River Basin

19 August 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2022 indicates water surpluses in western India from Mumbai into Karnataka including exceptional anomalies in the Krisha River Basin. Surpluses are also expected in the east in Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, and will be exceptional in the Ganges Delta, the Upper Subarnarekha River in Jharkhand, and the Gandaki River in Bihar.

Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in India’s far north, severe surpluses in eastern Rajasthan, and pockets of moderate surplus in Telangana and central Maharashtra.

Deficits are expected in India’s Far Northeast, exceptional in central Assam. Pockets of primarily moderate deficit are forecast for Gujarat, northern Maharashtra, and western Madhya Pradesh. At the tip of Tamil Nadu in the south, a pocket of extreme deficit is indicated.

Intense surpluses are forecast for southwestern Sri Lanka. Bangladesh can expect severe to extreme surpluses overall with exceptional anomalies on the coast. Nepal, too, can expect surplus conditions, as can western Bhutan. Anomalies will be exceptional on the Gandaki River through Nepal. Many regions of Pakistan will experience surpluses including exceptional anomalies west of the Jhelum and Indus Rivers and south of Hyderabad.

In Afghanistan, deficits will be severe to exceptional in the provinces surrounding Mazar-e Sharif in the north; some pockets of moderate surplus are expected in the Upper and Middle Helmand River regions; and mixed conditions are forecast in the nation’s west and south.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through October indicates that surpluses will shrink and downgrade considerably in the region. However, surpluses are expected in India’s far north; the eastern states of West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar; from Mumbai into Karnataka; around Hyderabad; and east of Bangalore. Deficits in the Far Northeast will shrink somewhat, persisting in central Assam. Moderate to severe surpluses will persist throughout Bangladesh. Surpluses will shrink in western Nepal, persisting elsewhere in the nation and into Bhutan. In Pakistan, surpluses are expected in the north, transitional conditions in the center of the country, and intense deficits in Baluchistan Province in the south. Afghanistan can expect surpluses and transitional conditions in the west.

From November 2021 through January 2022, exceptional deficits will emerge in Gujarat, India, and moderate deficits will increase in the Far Northeast and emerge in western Rajasthan and western Tamil Nadu. Moderate surpluses will linger in Bangladesh, nearby India states to the west, and Nepal. Surpluses will shrink in far north India but persist in eastern Rajasthan and a few pockets in the Krishna River Basin. Surpluses in Pakistan will shrink and moderate, persisting primarily in the north, and deficits will recede in the south. Surpluses are expected in Afghanistan from the Harirud River to the Helmand.

The forecast for the final months – February through April 2022 – indicates surpluses in Bangladesh, West Bengal, southern Nepal, eastern Maharashtra, and eastern Jammu and Kashmir. Moderate deficits are expected in Gujarat. Intense surpluses will re-emerge in central Pakistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Mid-July rainfall dumped 180 mm (7 inches) on northern Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in just 24 hours, resulting in 20 deaths. Later that month, flash flooding struck the nation’s capital, Islamabad, sending cars floating down the streets and leaving two people dead.

Around the same time, torrential rainfall triggered flooding in Nuristan Province northeast of Kabul, Afghanistan claiming at least 113 lives. Nearly all of the village of Miardish in Kamdesh district was destroyed with damage to homes, businesses, roads, bridges, power supply, and agriculture.

Many regions in Afghanistan’s north and west, however, are suffering drought conditions. Officials estimate that the nation’s wheat crop will fall by two million tonnes and livestock losses could total three million as pastures wither.

In mid-August, flooding in the Indian state of Bihar near Nepal claimed 12 lives and affected over 250,000 people as many rivers in the area, including the Ganges, surpassed the danger mark.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.