ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List September 2021

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST SEPTEMBER 2021

15 September 2021

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in June 2021 and running through May 2022 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List September 15, 2021 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably in the West, Northern Plains, and Northeast but persist in Peninsular Florida. Surpluses are forecast in central Gulf States and northern neighbors and will increase from Wisconsin to the Atlantic.

Canada: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will shrink, particularly in the southern region of the Prairie Provinces. However, widespread, exceptional anomalies will persist, especially in Quebec.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through November indicates water surpluses in southern Durango and Zacatecas, surrounding Mexico City, on Mexico’s central Pacific Coast, Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica. Areas of deficit include Baja, Tabasco, and western Haiti.

South America: The forecast through November indicates that widespread water deficits will shrink considerably, particularly in Brazil, but deficits are expected throughout Chile. Surpluses surrounding Manaus will downgrade and moderate surpluses will increase in the Amazon Basin.

Europe: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably in Southern Europe but persist in the Nordic region, Baltics, and Scotland. Surpluses will increase in Germany and northeastern France.

Africa: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade in North Africa but increase in northern Sudan. Deficits in central and southern Africa will downgrade considerably. Areas of surplus include southeastern Sudan, Tanzania, Botswana, and Western Cape, South Africa.

Middle East: The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade in Turkey and the Levant, but will intensify in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia. In Iraq, exceptional deficits will emerge at the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through November indicates that widespread, intense water deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan will retreat. Deficits in the Volga River Basin will shrink and downgrade. Surpluses will remain widespread in the Yenisei River Watershed.

South Asia: The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade considerably but will persist in the Chambal River Basin and far northern India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Deficits are forecast in pockets of Assam and Tamil Nadu.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Southeast Asia and the Philippines but will be widespread in many parts of Indonesia and New Guinea. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the Lesser Sunda Islands.

East Asia: The forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will remain widespread in Northeast China and the Yellow and Yangtze Basins, downgrading in the rivers’ upper regions. Deficits are forecast in South and Southeast China. Japan can expect surpluses in the south, deficits in Hokkaido.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through November indicates water surpluses in the Macintyre River region of New South Wales, the Atherton Tablelands in Queensland, and the Avon River catchment in Western Australia. Deficits are forecast south of Perth, near Melbourne, and in New Caledonia.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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