Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus in Durango & Zacatecas

23 September 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending May 2022 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in Mexico’s Baja Peninsula including exceptional anomalies, and severe deficits from southeastern Chihuahua into Durango.

Widespread surpluses are forecast from southern Durango into neighboring Sinaloa on the coast and land-locked Zacatecas. Farther south, surpluses are also forecast along the central Pacific Coast; in Mexico City and surrounding states; and northern Oaxaca.

Pockets of moderate to severe deficit are expected along the southern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in Veracruz, Tabasco, and Campeche.

Mexico_Central_America_Caribbean_Composite_Adjusted_202106-202205_12mo_twitter.png

In Central America and the Caribbean, moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast from southern Nicaragua through northern Costa Rica. Surpluses of generally lesser intensity are forecast for many regions of Honduras, pockets of southern Guatemala, and Panama. Intense surpluses are expected in Cuba and Jamaica.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through November indicates that surpluses will increase in southern Durango and Zacatecas, Mexico with severe anomalies overall. Surpluses will persist in Mexico City and increase in surrounding states, while surpluses on the central Pacific Coast shrink and downgrade. Surpluses will also persist in the Upper Yaqui River Watershed of Sonora in northern Mexico. Moderate deficits will emerge in southern Baja, downgrading to mild in the peninsula’s north. In southern Mexico, severe deficits will persist in Tabasco on the Gulf, moderating as they reach into southern Veracruz State.

Mexico_Central_America_Caribbean_Composite_Adjusted_202106-202205_3mo_twitter.png

In Central America, surpluses will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread from eastern Honduras through Nicaragua and into northern Costa Rica. Moderate surpluses will emerge in eastern Panama. Intense surpluses are forecast in much of Cuba and Jamaica, but deficits will emerge in western Cuba and western Haiti.

From December 2021 through February 2022, deficits will retreat from Baja but moderate to severe deficits will emerge from southeastern Chihuahua into central Coahuila. Surpluses will nearly disappear along Mexico’s central Pacific Coast, shrink slightly in the region around the nation’s capital, but persist from southern Durango through Zacatecas into San Luis Potosi. In the south, exceptional deficits will emerge along the Pacific Coast from southern Guerrero through Oaxaca and Chiapas, and in pockets of Campeche in the Yucatán, while anomalies in Tabasco moderate. Deficits will emerge in Guatemala and El Salvador, and surpluses will downgrade somewhat but persist in Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and eastern Honduras, retreating from most of Panama. Surpluses and transitional conditions are expected in Cuba and Jamaica.

The forecast for the final three months – March through May 2022 – indicates deficits in Mexico’s central north, Baja, coastal Sonora, the central Pacific Coast, and pockets of the Yucatan, and will include exceptional anomalies. Areas of surplus include Zacatecas, the area around Mexico City, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Cuba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Tropical Storm Grace swept through the Caribbean in mid-August, causing floods and landslides in Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Trinidad, complicating recovery efforts from an earthquake in Haiti that killed nearly 2,000 people.

Tropical Storm Nora skirted Mexico’s Pacific Coast later in the month, killing one person in Puerto Vallarta when a hotel partially collapsed, and causing severe damage in Cihuatlán and a landslide in Jalisco.

In early September, heavy rainfall in the central Mexican state of Hidalgo triggered flooding that left 16 hospital patients dead after electrical failure cut off the power supply to breathing equipment. The majority of those who died were being treated for covid 19. The Tula River, just 210 meters (~ 1/8 mile) from the hospital, flooded its banks, along with two other rivers in the area.

Flooding in nearby Morelos State during the same period claimed four lives, damaged 300 homes, and affected 1,600 residents.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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