Australia & New Zealand: Water surplus in Macintyre River NSW

Australia & New Zealand: Water surplus in Macintyre River NSW

24 September 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2022 indicates extreme to exceptional water surpluses in Western Australia in the Avon River catchment. Deficits are forecast along the southwestern coast, moderate near Geraldton but more intense from Perth through Busselton and past the lower Blackwood River region.

Deficits are expected in pockets of the coastal south on the west coast of the Eyre Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, and nearby on the mainland to Melbourne. Near the Lower Murray River in South Australia, intense surpluses and transitional conditions are expected. Surpluses of lesser intensity are expected in the Grampians region of western Victoria. Deficits will be intense in western and southern Tasmania.

In eastern Australia, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for the Macintyre River region of northeastern New South Wales. In Far North Queensland, surpluses are expected at the tip of the Cape York Peninsula.

Normal water conditions are expected overall in New Zealand with a small area of moderate deficit near Hawke’s Bay in the north and a few small pockets in the nation’s southeast. Surpluses are forecast in the Fiordland region in the south and coastal extremes in the northeast. New Caledonia’s northern half will experience severe deficits while its southern tip can expect moderate surpluses.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through November indicates moderate to severe surpluses in the Macintyre River region in northeastern New South Wales and moderate surpluses north of Grampians National Park in Victoria, while surpluses near the Australian Alps will shrink. Intense surpluses will persist in Western Australia in the Avon River catchment east of Perth and extending south, but deficits of varying intensity are forecast along the southwestern coast from Perth well past Busselton and the Blackwood River. Surpluses are expected to re-emerge in Western Australia in the Lake Carnegie region southwest of the Gibson Desert and also near Katherine in Northern Territory.

A few pockets of surplus will linger in Far North Queensland, particularly in the Atherton Tablelands. In the nation’s coastal south from Cape Otway to Melbourne, moderate deficits are forecast that will reach across the Bass Strait into small pockets of Tasmania. Deficits will skirt New Zealand’s eastern coastal areas and some limited areas of surplus are expected in NZ’s extreme points. Moderate deficits are forecast throughout New Caledonia.

From December 2021 through February 2022, surpluses will shrink in the Macintyre River region, moderate surplus anomalies will increase from Sydney through Canberra to the Victoria border, and increase in Top End, Northern Territory. Intense surpluses are expected to persist in the Avon River catchment in the west and deficits will continue along the coast nearby. Nearly normal conditions are forecast for Tasmania and New Zealand. New Caledonia will transition from moderate deficit to moderate surplus.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2022 – indicates persistent, intense surpluses in the Avon River Watershed while coastal deficits nearby diminish. Surpluses in southeastern Australia will nearly disappear but a few small pockets are expected in the nation’s north. Moderate surpluses will shrink in New Caledonia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Torrential rainfall during late August triggered flooding and landslides in Auckland, New Zealand, forcing closure of a dozen roads. In just 24 hours, 208 mm (8 inches) of rain fell in Kumeū, a rural community northwest of the city. For much of this year Auckland’s dams have been low, around 25 percent, but for the first time in over two years reservoirs are 80 percent full.

On the other side of NZ’s North Island however, farmers in Hawke’s Bay remain concerned about the possibility of a third year of drought as spring has been dry so far and soil moisture is low. This year the Hawke’s Bay Regional Council launched a free, web-based drought indicator app using data from 50 local climate stations on rainfall, soil temperature, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. The tool, financed through local and federal funding, is expected to aid planning in the agricultural community.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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