East Asia: Widespread water surpluses will persist in China

19 October 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through June 2022 indicates widespread extreme to exceptional water surpluses in Northeast China in the Songhua River Watershed and extending across the Russian border. This vast path of intense surplus will continue through the North China Plain, the Lower and Middle Yellow River (Huang He) Watershed, Shaanxi Province south of the Ordos Loop, and much of the river’s upper basin.

In the Yangtze region, surpluses will be widespread in the northern portion of the basin. Anomalies will be exceptional in the lower watershed and along the river’s path from Wuhan past Chongqing and in the drainage basin of Three Gorges Dam, and of varying intensity in the Yangtze’s upper basin. Much of Tibet (Xizang) will see surpluses, exceptional tracing the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River.

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Widespread, exceptional deficits are forecast from western Inner Mongolia into Xinjiang. In South and Southeast China, deficits are forecast in Guangxi, Guangdong, southern Hunan, Jiangxi, and Fujian. Anomalies will be exceptional in eastern Guangdong.

Nearly normal conditions are forecast for Korea with intense surpluses in the northeast. Exceptional deficits are expected in Hokkaido, Japan; moderate to severe deficits in northern Honshu; and surpluses elsewhere. In Mongolia, surpluses are forecast in the north, east, and in the Hangayn Mountains.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates persistent, widespread, intense surpluses from Northeast China through the North China Plain and much of the vast Yellow River Basin, with anomalies downgrading somewhat in the far reaches of the upper basin. Conditions in western Inner Mongolia will begin to transition away from intense deficit and anomalies in Xinjiang will moderate. In the vast Yangtze River region, surpluses will remain widespread in the northern portion of the basin. Anomalies will be exceptional in the drainage area of Three Gorges Dam, severe to extreme in the lower basin, and moderate in the Fuchun River region south of Shanghai. In South and Southeast China, deficits will increase from Guangxi through much of Fujian, moderate overall but intense in southwestern Guangxi and eastern Guangdong. Anomalies will nearly disappear in Taiwan. Surpluses are forecast throughout most of Tibet.

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Surpluses are forecast in North Korea and southern Japan, deficits in Japan’s northern extremes. In Mongolia, a complicated patchwork of water conditions is expected with surpluses in the north.

From January through March 2022, widespread surpluses will persist in China in a distribution pattern similar to the prior three months, but anomalies in the Lower Yangtze Basin will nearly disappear. Deficits in South and Southeast China will shrink but exceptional deficits are forecast in the Zuo and Yong River regions of Guangxi including Nanning, and between Hong Kong and Shantou on the southeast coast. Surpluses will persist in North Korea. In Japan, deficits will retreat from Hokkaido and coastal surpluses will emerge, while surpluses retreat elsewhere and moderate deficits emerge in Kyushu and coastal pockets in Shikoku and Honshu.

The forecast for the final three months – April through June 2022 – indicates surpluses in Northeast China, the North China Plain, the Yellow River Watershed, and central Tibet. Deficits are forecast from western Inner Mongolia into central Xinjiang. Severe deficits will emerge in northern Honshu, Japan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Intense rainfall triggered flooding in Shanxi Province in northern China during early October that left 15 dead. In just under a week, the region recorded maximum accumulated precipitation of 285.2 millimeters (11 inches). The flooding halted operations at 60 coal mines in Shanxi, leading to a surge in prices amid a national energy crisis that has prompted power rationing, leaving factories and consumers scrambling. Shanxi produces 30 percent of the nation’s coal. Production was also suspended at over 350 mining operations other than coal and 14 chemical factories. The deluge inundated farmland, destroyed 17,000 buildings, and disrupted rail service. Electricity and water supply were cut off in some rural areas. The flooding affected over 1.76 million people. Emergency funds totaling 423 million yuan ($65.7 million) have been allocated for relief.

In neighboring Hebei Province, 14 people lost their lives when a bus slid off a flooded bridge in Shijiazhuang, plunging into the river.

Losses from July flooding in Henan Province totaled $US1.9 billion, the largest ever for the Chinese insurance market.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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