South America: Water deficits forecast to shrink

20 October 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits across northern Colombia and Venezuela throughout the vast Orinoco River watershed. Deficits will also be intense in Colombia’s southern corner.

Elsewhere across the northern arc of the continent, pockets of surplus, primarily moderate, are expected spanning the central border of Ecuador and Colombia including Quito and in Colombia east of Cali. Moderate deficits are forecast south of Ecuador’s capital. Surpluses are also forecast in Venezuela’s southern tip reaching across the border into Brazil, and in northeastern Venezuela including the Orinoco Delta and northern regions of the Guianas.

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Brazil can expect surpluses in the northern and eastern Amazon River Basin, mild to moderate overall but reaching exceptional intensity in a pocket northwest of Manaus. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for western Amazonas, becoming exceptional in Acre. Deficits are also forecast in Brazil’s Central West and Southeast regions and will be severe to extreme in Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, and São Paulo States.

Nearly all of Chile will experience deficits with exceptional anomalies dominating the nation from La Serena through Valparaiso and Santiago to the Gulf of Corcovado. Deficits in Patagonia will extend across the border into Argentina, eventually downgrading though remaining intense along several southern rivers. Deficits will also be intense in Tierra del Fuego and the Falklands. Elsewhere in Argentina, deficits are forecast in San Juan Province in the west, several provinces in the northwest, and Corrientes Province in the northeast.

In Bolivia, deficits are forecast in the south, east of La Paz, and in the northeast. Neighboring Paraguay can expect deficits in its eastern half. A mixture of conditions is forecast in Peru though anomalies will generally be mild.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates that widespread deficits observed in the prior three months will shrink considerably, returning normal water conditions to many regions of Brazil. However, intense deficits will persist in northwestern Pará and Amapá and deficits in the nation’s eastern tip will become exceptional. Deficits are also forecast for Maranhão, western Amazonas, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo State, Paraná, and Rio Grande do Sul, and will be severe in Paraná. Surpluses will increase in the northern Amazon Basin, mild to moderate overall.

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In northern nations, deficits are forecast from Bogota, Colombia into western and central Venezuela; in the Japurá (Caquetá) River Watershed in southern Colombia; and a pocket in eastern Ecuador. Anomalies will be exceptional north of Bogota and around Merida, Venezuela. Surpluses will persist but downgrade in pockets of Colombia, southern Venezuela, and from the Orinoco Delta through the Guianas. Deficits are expected throughout Chile, exceptional from Concepcion past the Gulf of Corcovado, reaching into Argentina before moderating to the Atlantic Coast. Intense deficits will persist in Tierra del Fuego and the Falklands. Moderate deficits are expected north of the Salado River in Buenos Aires Province, in the northeastern provinces reaching into Uruguay, and along the Bermejo River. Intense deficits on the Paraná River will become merely mild and surpluses in the central Pampas will nearly disappear. Deficits are forecast in pockets of southern Bolivia and relatively mild mixed conditions in much of Peru with moderate surpluses north of Lake Titicaca.

From January through March 2022, deficits will continue to shrink and downgrade, persisting primarily in western and central Venezuela, a pocket in northeastern Colombia, and Chile. Some exceptional deficits will persist in border areas of northern Chile and moderate to extreme deficits from central Chile to O’Higgins/San Martin Lake in the south, reaching into Argentina. Moderate surpluses will become widespread in the northern Amazon Basin, persist in the Orinoco Delta, and shrink in the Guianas.

The final quarter – April through June 2022 – indicates that surpluses will shrink north of the Amazon, increase between the Tapajos and Xingu Rivers, and emerge on the Purus River. Surpluses elsewhere include the Orinoco Delta and northern Guyana. Deficits are forecast in Chilean border areas and northern Chile and will linger in Tierra del Fuego and the Falklands.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In early October, the sky above São Paulo, Brazil turned orange as a massive, drought-driven sandstorm moved in. The storm left six people dead, the result of downed trees and buildings.

Reservoirs supplying hydro-electric dams in the nation’s southeast and west central regions were at just 17 percent of capacity at the beginning of October. Cattle are now grazing in some reservoir sections where water once flowed and over a dozen communities in São Paulo State are under water rationing orders. In the greater São Paulo metropolitan area, the state water authority is reducing water pressure between 9pm and 5am, leaving some consumers in higher elevation regions without water.

As Brazil’s hydroelectricity output has dwindled, the nation is looking to regional and global sources of natural gas for fuel but is facing fierce competition from purchasers in Europe and Asia. To discourage electricity consumption, the government is now imposing a surcharge of 14.2-reais (US$2.60) on each 100-kilowatt-hours of use.

The drought has Brazil’s metal industries scrambling for a Plan B to keep production lines running. While the steel industry is prepared to create its own power through thermoelectric generation, that method comes with a higher price tag than hydroelectric. Aluminum producers have even more at risk with energy already their major input cost.

Water levels on the Paraguay and Parana Rivers remain at extraordinarily low levels, reducing cargo loads on these critical export waterways to 35 percent of capacity.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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