Middle East: Water deficits will intensify in Riyadh

Middle East: Water deficits will intensify in Riyadh

27 October 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending June 2022 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in the Levant, much of Saudi Arabia, and the small nations on the Persian Gulf. Turkey, too, can expect deficits including exceptional deficits in the west and in the east near Lake Van.  

Deficits will be severe overall in the Levant, reaching extreme or exceptional intensity in pockets of Jordan and Iraq west of the Euphrates River. Severe to exceptional deficits area also forecast in northern and southeastern Saudi Arabia, separated by moderate anomalies. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) and some surpluses are expected in the southwest. Extreme to exceptional deficits will dominate United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. Mixed conditions are forecast in Yemen including intense deficits near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and surpluses northeast of Sanaa.

In Iran, deficits are expected at the northern end of the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, pockets in Esfahan Province in the center of the country, and following the Qezel Ozan River in the north. In the nation’s southeast, surpluses are forecast in a belt across Sistan and Baluchestan Province.

In Georgia, intense deficits are expected on the coast including Batumi, and north of the Mtkvari (Kura) River. Surpluses are forecast south of the river and in nation’s eastern tip.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade in Turkey, persisting primarily in the Upper Ceyhan River Watershed of central Turkey and the Kizilirmak River in the north. Deficits from the Levant through northern Iran will retreat, though generally mild anomalies are forecast in Iraq. Surpluses will re-emerge in northern Syria and around Mosul, Iraq. In Saudi Arabia, primarily moderate deficits are expected in Ha’il Province in the north. In the central south including Riyadh, deficits will be more intense, and transitions are expected as surpluses shrink. Surpluses will persist along much of Yemen’s border with Saudi Arabia and exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Oman. In Iran, deficits will increase in the south leading into central provinces and will include some pockets of exceptional deficit. Conditions in northern Iran will be normal overall with pockets of surplus near Lake Urmia, Tehran, and the northeast near the coast.

From January through March 2022, much of the region will return to normal water conditions. However, intense surpluses will persist in northern Syria, around Mosul, and in northeastern Iran near the coast. Surpluses will also persist in pockets of Yemen near the Saudi border. Moderate deficits are expected in southern Riyadh Province and near Sanaa.

In the final quarter – April through June 2022 – mild to moderate deficits will increase in the region, and moderate to severe anomalies in Riyadh Province and southeastern Saudi Arabia. Surpluses will persist in northern Syria, northwestern Yemen, and northeastern Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Iraq’s 2021-2022 cultivated crop area will be a mere 50 percent of last year’s due to drought. As a result, the nation’s wheat production is likely to see a 70 percent decline, pushing wheat imports up to satisfy Iraq’s subsidized food program. Iraq depends on water from its upstream neighbors Turkey and Iran via the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers and tributaries, but drought has created additional import needs in those nations as well.

At the end of September, the water level in the Darbandikhan Dam in Iraq measured the lowest in 65 years, since the dam was built. The Darbandikhan is on the Diyala River that originates in Iran and joins the Tigris. Low flow on the Diyala is being attributed to upstream damming in Iran and precipitation deficits. A water-rights agreement between Turkey and Iraq went into effect in early October, but so far no agreement has been reached with Iran. Iraq may appeal to the international court in The Hague to establish water quotas from Iran.

Tropical Storm Shaheen struck Oman in early October. Eleven deaths were reported in Oman and two in Iran. The cyclone brought nearly a year’s worth of rain to some regions of Oman in a day, causing floods and landslides.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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