Canada: Water deficits will shrink in the Prairie Provinces

Canada: Water deficits will shrink in the Prairie Provinces

27 October 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through June 2022 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity throughout the provinces including vast areas of exceptional deficit.

In the eastern half of the nation, deficits will be exceptional in southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, northeastern Quebec including the Manicouagan Reservoir region and reaching into western Labrador, from Gouin Reservoir past Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and around Montreal.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in much of Southern Ontario; exceptional deficits are expected in a broad column along the border with Quebec reaching James Bay; and deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario though surpluses will sketch the coastline on Hudson Bay.

In the Prairie Provinces, deficits of varying intensity are forecast across the south including exceptional deficits around Winnipeg (Manitoba), Regina (Saskatchewan), and Calgary (Alberta). Severe to exceptional deficits will belt the central regions. In the provinces’ northern reaches, surpluses will dominate from Fort McMurray in Alberta through Saskatchewan’s northwest quadrant and in northwestern Manitoba. However, deficits will frame these surpluses with widespread, exceptional anomalies in Manitoba near Hudson Bay and in Alberta’s northwestern corner and the Middle Athabasca River region.

Central Vancouver Island in British Columbia can expect intense deficits while deficits of varying intensity are forecast near the province’s southern border. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the southern Cariboo Region, but intense deficits are forecast farther north in the Fraser River Watershed near Prince George. Deficits will also be intense in the central north, expanding as they reach well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories. Surpluses are forecast in the Stikine River Watershed in northern British Columbia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates that deficits will shrink, most notably in southern regions of the Prairie Provinces and British Columbia, though vast areas of deficit will persist nationwide. In the east, exceptional deficits will persist in southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, Nova Scotia’s southern tip, vast areas of Quebec, and Montreal. In Southern Ontario between Toronto and Ottawa, exceptional deficits will downgrade. West of Toronto, moderate surpluses will emerge in the Grand River Watershed and deficits north of Lake Erie will moderate. Deficits will persist in Northern Ontario, downgrading in some areas, and surpluses near Hudson Bay will nearly disappear. In the Prairie Provinces, deficits will shrink in the south, returning some areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba to normalcy. Intense deficits will persist in the central regions of the Prairies though the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink in Alberta and Saskatchewan; deficits in the north will shrink somewhat as surplus patterns remain much the same. In British Columbia, deficits will shrink overall, and surpluses will increase somewhat in the south.

From January through March 2022, deficits will shrink and downgrade from Toronto to Montreal and deficits north of Lake Erie will disappear as surpluses increase. Deficits will downgrade slightly in the Prairie Provinces and shrink in southern regions. Surpluses in Manitoba’s northwestern corner will diminish. Deficits will retreat from Vancouver Island and downgrade in the Fraser Watershed near Prince George and in British Columbia’s far north.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2022 – indicates that deficits will shrink overall, particularly in the west, though large pockets of intense deficit will persist in Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Labrador. Surpluses will increase in northwestern Manitoba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The humble pea is commanding a higher price in the global market as drought in major pea-producer Canada has reduced output. Pea prices in Canada have doubled, leaving plant-based “meat” companies around the world scrambling, and taking a bigger bite out of the pockets of vegan consumers looking to bite into a burger.

Drought in the Prairie Provinces is expected to reduce domestic grain production by 37 percent. That hit will echo into the revenues of the nation’s largest railways as freight trains simply run out of grain to deliver.

Canada can expect its smallest canola harvest in over a dozen years, forcing major importers like Mexico and Japan to face higher prices, turn elsewhere, or seek alternative oils. That search could lead to palm or soybean oil, pressuring those markets and increasing global food inflation.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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