Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus in C Amer will downgrade

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus in C Amer will downgrade

28 October 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending June 2022 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in Mexico’s Baja Peninsula including exceptional anomalies in Baja California. In the mainland north, moderate to exceptional deficits are expected in a broad region at the intersection of Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Durango. Small, scattered pockets of deficit will pepper the northeastern states.

Surpluses are forecast from coastal Sinaloa into neighboring southern Durango and land-locked Zacatecas leading south through the state of Mexico, where anomalies will be intense, and into Morelos. Surpluses are also forecast along the central Pacific Coast and in northern Oaxaca. On the Gulf of Mexico, pockets of deficit are expected along the southern coast in Veracruz and into the Yucatán.

In Central America and the Caribbean, severe to extreme surpluses are forecast from Nicaragua through Costa Rica. Surpluses of generally lesser intensity are forecast for many regions of Honduras, pockets of southern Guatemala, and Panama. Intense surpluses are expected in Jamaica and Cuba.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates that deficits will retreat from the northern Baja Peninsula in Mexico and will moderate in the mainland from southern Chihuahua into northern Durango. Surpluses will persist in a path from southern Durango through Morelos but will shrink on the central Pacific Coast. On the Gulf of Mexico, deficits will emerge in northern Tamaulipas, increase in Veracruz’s northern tip, downgrade from southern Veracruz into Tabasco, and intensify somewhat at the tip of the Yucatán Peninsula. Mild to moderate deficits will emerge in the southern states and into central Guatemala and southern Belize. Surpluses in Central America will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread in Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Surpluses are forecast for Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas.

From January through March, deficits will increase in north-central Mexico from southern Chihuahua into Coahuila and northern Durango with exceptional deficits in Coahuila. Surpluses will persist in a path through the center of the nation from Zacatecas through Morelos, downgrading slightly, while the central Pacific Coast transitions away from surplus. Along the northern shore of the Gulf of Mexico, deficits will nearly disappear. Deficits in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will intensify, becoming exceptional in pockets of Oaxaca. Deficits in the Yucatán’s tip will moderate but a pocket of exceptional deficit will emerge in Campeche. Moderate deficits are forecast in some pockets of Guatemala, but surpluses are expected in the southeast, in parts of Honduras, and throughout much of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Jamaica and Cuba will begin to transition away from surplus as deficits emerge.

The forecast for the final three months – April through June 2022 – indicates that deficits will emerge in Baja and western Sonora, shrink in the north-central states, and nearly disappear elsewhere in Mexico. Surpluses will persist in the central states, re-emerge on the central Pacific Coast, and emerge in Oaxaca. Surpluses will persist from southern Nicaragua into Costa Rica, and in Jamaica and Cuba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought in Mexico’s northern state of Chihuahua is taking a toll on cattle ranchers. Though rainfall has improved pasture growth, herds have been reduced by 40 to 50 percent and calving numbers are low according to the president of the regional cattle ranchers’ union. With federal support, the state completed a cloud seeding effort consisting of 26 flights to stimulate precipitation.

Rainfall over the summer months has recharged reservoirs and aquifers in central Mexico. For the first time in two years the central state of Guanajuato is not experiencing drought conditions. As of late October, several other states in the center of the nation are drought-free including Aguascalientes, Zacatecas, Colima, Mexico City, Morelos, Nayarit, and Tlaxcala. Three dams in Guanajuato - La Purísima, Solís, and Peñuelitas - are over 100 percent of official capacity.

Heavy rains in late October triggered 45 flood incidents in Costa Rica, overwhelming a municipal sewage system in San Jose Province. Flooding was also reported in Puntarenas, Alajuela, Heredia, and Guanacaste Provinces.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.