Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits will retreat from C Asia

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits will retreat from C Asia

29 October 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2022 indicates widespread water deficits in western and southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Caspian Basin of western Kazakhstan and in southern Qaraghandy Region.

Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Ishim River Watershed of northern Kazakhstan and severe surpluses in the nation’s capital, Nur-Sultan. Surpluses are also forecast in the Kazakh Upland north of Lake Balkhash. In Kyrgyzstan, surpluses are forecast in much of the east and in the far south reaching into central Tajikistan. Deficits are expected in western Tajikistan and pockets in the east.

In Russia, deficits are forecast from the Middle Volga region through TransVolga and the southern Ural Mountains reaching past Tyumen. Anomalies will be exceptional west of Tyumen. Widespread surpluses are forecast from the eastern portion of the Ob River Watershed through much of the Yenisei River Watershed. In the Central Siberian Plateau, exceptional deficits are expected in the middle reaches of the Vilyuy River, a tributary of the Lena River, including the area surrounding the Vilyuy Reservoir, and spanning the southern edge of the plateau and the region north of Lake Baikal. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the plateau’s northeast between the Markha and Tyung Rivers. Intense surpluses are also forecast in a vast area from Lake Baikal through Russian regions bordering China.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates that widespread, intense deficits in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan will retreat. Surpluses are forecast in the Ishim River Watershed of northern Kazakhstan, in the Kazakh Upland north of Lake Balkhash and in the region to the southeast of the lake. Surpluses are also expected along the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan and in the nation’s east and south, leading into central Tajikistan; spanning the north-central border of Uzbekistan; and several pockets in southern Turkmenistan.

In Russia, deficits in the Volga River Basin will shrink considerably while intense deficits persist in the Tura River Watershed to Tyumen. Widespread surpluses will persist from the Ob River’s eastern watershed into the Yenisei River Watershed, and intense deficits will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses will intensify along the Lena River from Lensk to Yakutsk and in the region of the Lena’s southern tributaries where surpluses will stretch through Russian areas bordering China. Intense deficits will persist near the Sea of Okhotsk.

From January through March 2022, deficits will increase from the southern Urals through the Tura River Watershed past Tyumen to Omsk and from the Ural River Watershed to the Ishim River in northern Kazakhstan. Surpluses will shrink from the eastern Ob Watershed to the Yenisei, but persist in a widespread region from Lake Baikal to Northeast China. Deficits will intensify in the Central Siberian Plateau. In Kazakhstan, surpluses will increase north of the Caspian Sea, north of the Aral Sea, and in pockets reaching east to Lake Balkhash. Surpluses will persist in eastern Kyrgyzstan and pockets of southern Turkmenistan.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2022 – indicates that deficits will retreat from northern Kazakhstan through the southern Urals and will shirnk considerably in the Central Siberian Plateau. Widespread surpluses, primarily moderate, will emerge between the Ob and Yenisei Rivers.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought has reduced the water level in Kyrgyzstan’s largest hydroelectric reservoir, Toktogul, prompting the government to begin negotiating for electricity from neighboring nations to secure winter supplies. As of early October the water level at Toktogul, which supplies about 40 percent of the nation’s electricity, was about 20 percent lower than the same time last year. Kyrgyzstan will need to import 2 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity.

At the end of September, restrictions on electricity use were instituted affecting some commercial activities. Downstream neighbors Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan depend on water from Toktogul each spring for agricultural use. That supply would be threatened if Kyrgyzstan releases water now to satisfy its own current needs, complicating a prior agreement with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan who agreed to provide Kyrgyzstan with electricity so that Toktogul water would be available to them in the spring.

The 2021-2022 wheat season in Kazakhstan will likely be 16 percent lower than last year. Low soil moisture levels plagued crop sowing while drought, high temperatures, and dust storms hampered growth.

Russia’s wheat crop is expected to be at least 10 million tonnes lower than last year with dry conditions impacting production. This may topple Russia from its position as world’s largest wheat exporter, relinquishing the role to the European Union.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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