Canada: Water deficits will shrink in Prairie Provinces’ south

18 November 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through July 2022 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity throughout the provinces including vast areas of exceptional deficit.

In the eastern half of the nation, deficits will be exceptional in southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, northeastern Quebec including the Manicouagan Reservoir region and reaching into western Labrador, from Gouin Reservoir past Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and around Montreal.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in much of Southern Ontario though a belt of surplus is forecast west of Toronto. Exceptional deficits are expected in a broad column along the border with Quebec reaching James Bay. Deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario though surpluses will sketch the coastline on Hudson Bay.

In the Prairie Provinces, nearly normal conditions are forecast across southern Saskatchewan while some deficits are expected in the southern regions of its neighbors including exceptional deficits in a pocket surrounding Winnipeg (Manitoba) and intense deficits west of Calgary (Alberta). Severe to exceptional deficits will belt central Prairie regions and will be particularly intense and widespread north of Lake Winnipeg. In the provinces’ northern reaches, surpluses will dominate Saskatchewan’s northwest quadrant leading west to Fort McMurray in Alberta. Surpluses are also forecast in northwestern Manitoba while widespread, exceptional deficits will dominate the northeast to Hudson Bay. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in Alberta’s northwest and the Middle and Upper Athabasca River regions.

Central Vancouver Island in British Columbia can expect intense deficits while mixed conditions are forecast on the province’s southern border. Surpluses are expected in the southern Cariboo Region, but intense deficits are forecast a bit farther north in the upper Fraser River Watershed. Deficits will also be intense in much of BC’s far north, reaching well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories. Surpluses are forecast in the lower Stikine River Watershed in northern British Columbia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2022 indicates that while deficits will shrink somewhat, notably in southern regions of the Prairie Provinces, vast areas of deficit will persist nationwide. In the major metropolitan areas of the east, deficits are expected near Ottawa, Montreal, and Québec City, and surpluses in a narrow belt stretching from west of Toronto to Lake Huron. Elsewhere in the east, exceptional deficits will persist in southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, Nova Scotia’s southern tip, and vast areas of Quebec. In Southern Ontario, deficits will remain intense between Toronto and Ottawa though exceptional deficits will retreat, and deficits immediately north of Lake Erie will moderate. Widespread deficits will persist in Northern Ontario, downgrading in some areas, and surpluses near Hudson Bay will retreat.

In the Prairie Provinces, deficits will shrink in the south, returning some areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba to normalcy. Intense deficits will persist in the central regions of the Prairies, re-emerging in the Churchill River Watershed of Manitoba. Surpluses will shrink in northwestern Manitoba but persist in Saskatchewan’s northwest quadrant. Surpluses will increase in southern British Columbia and deficits on Vancouver Island will shrink.

From February through April 2022, deficits will continue to shrink in southern regions of the Prairie Provinces, returning normal conditions to southern Saskatchewan and significant portions of its neighbors. Deficits will shrink slightly in central Saskatchewan, shrink and downgrade in central and northern Alberta, and retreat from Vancouver Island.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2022 – indicates that deficits will downgrade though exceptional anomalies are forecast in large pockets of Quebec, Ontario, and Manitoba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Days of torrential rainfall in western Canada during mid-November have taken a heavy toll on infrastructure in southern British Columbia where some areas received a month’s worth of rain - 8 inches (20 cm) - in just one day. Near the town of Hope, the surging Coquihalla River washed away a section of Highway 5. The Thompson River east of Lytton swept one section of Highway 1 into the river, forcing the roadway’s closure. The Malahat Highway on Vancouver Island also incurred washout damage, prompting evacuations by ferry. A landslide 100 miles to the northeast carried cars off Highway 99, resulting in one death.

Flooding shut down rail routes into the Port of Vancouver effectively halting C$550 million ($440 million) worth of daily cargo. The deluge closed the Trans Mountain pipeline that moves 300,000 barrels per day of Alberta crude oil to the coast, and a major natural gas pipeline was ordered closed as a precautionary measure.

The town of Merritt’s 8,000 residents were ordered to evacuate. Floodwaters left cars in the region bobbing in four feet (1.22 m) of water.

The federal government has deployed 300 military personnel to the province for rescue and evacuation operations and to relieve supply chain disruptions.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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